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IBERIAN DAILY 08 MARCH (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: CHANGES IBEX, COLONIAL, TALGO.

The ECB brings the inflation target closer
Stock exchanges welcome March’s ECB meeting after climbing >+1%. In the STOXX 600 Pharma and Technology led gains, whereas Travel&Leisure saw the biggest drops. On the macro side, in the euro zone, the ECB meeting provided few surprises as rates remained unchanged unanimously (as expected), but the cut to inflation forecasts (already leaked by the press), along with Lagarde’s message helped to confirm that the ECB will cut rates in June for the first time although C. Lagarde insisted they will keep a restrictive monetary policy for as long as necessary. In subsequent comments, J. Nagel stated that cuts could begin before the summer, although this will depend on macro performance. In the US, M. Bowman from the Fed considers it is not the time to cut rates and he would raise them again if necessary. On another note, J. Powell repeated his speech before the Senate, stressing that they will be patient until inflation movies consistently towards 2%, although he admitted that this point is not far away. In Japan, January’s leading indicators slowed in line with expectations. In China, S&P warned of the risk of downgrading the country’s credit rating if economic recovery remains weak.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of +0.5%, fuelled by cyclical sectors. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.13% (the S&P 500 ended +0.11% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian stock markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.29%, Japan’s Nikkei +0.23%).
Today in Germany and Spain we will learn January’s industrial output, in the euro zone the final reading of the 4Q’23 GDP and in the US February’s job data.

COMPANY NEWS

TALGO. Magyar Vagón requests authorisation for friendly TOB over 100% of the company. SELL.
The Hungarian consortium Ganz-MaVag Europe Zrt. (Magyar Vagon) communicated to the CNMV their authorisation request for a friendly and voluntary TOB for 100% of TLGO’s shares at € 5.00/sh. in cash (+13.9% vs. yesterday’s close, after rising 5.28%, and +14.4% vs. 07/02/24 when it was suspended from trading and +27.7% vs. Nov’23 when the interest was made public). The TOB is subject to the government authorisation and has been backed by Pegaso T. (main shareholder in TLGO with 40% of the capital), as well as by TLGO’s Board that stated that the compensation offered is attractive for shareholders, making public a favourable preliminary opinion. The TOB is subject to the acceptance of 50% of the shareholding structure plus + share and to the regulatory and government authorisations, with the aim of not delisting the company. The break-up fee is 0.5% (€ 3 M).

CHANGES IBEX 35. As expected, no changes were made.
At yesterday’s closing bell the Technical Advisory Committee of the Ibex 35 decided not to make any changes to the Ibex35 components in its first follow-up meeting (the other being in June). In line with expectations. There were no changes in weightings either.