IBERIAN DAILY 20 SEPTEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: ECOENER, IBERDROLA, REPSOL.The Ibex returns to the 9,500-point level
It was a new transition and volatile session, with the peripheral segment leading the performance, as Italy’s MIB and Spain’s Ibex were the only main indices in the euro zone ending with gains. In the Euro STOXX, Energy and Real Estate saw the biggest gains vs. the worse relative performance of Consumer Goods and Industrials. On the macro side, in the euro zone August’s final inflation was cut by one tenth to 5.2% YoY although the core data remained at the preliminary level of 5.3%. The OECD cut its global growth forecast for 2024 by -0.2% to 2.7%, whereas it raised that of 2023 slightly to 3.0% from 2.7% thanks to the US, where it raised its forecast to 2.2% (1.6% prev.). In the euro zone growth was cut by -0.3% to 0.6% in 2023 and -0.4% in 2024 to 1.1%. It raised its growth forecast for Spain in 2023 by 2 tenths to 2.3%, keeping 2024 GDP at +1.9%. In Spain, the BoS kept the 2.3% growth forecast’23, cutting its 2024 estimate by 0.4% to 1.8% and warning about downward risks. Furthermore, the BoS raised its inflation estimate in 2023 by four tenths and by seven for 2024 to 3.6% and 4.3%, respectively. In the US, August’s construction licences rose more than expected whereas constructions starts dropped more than expected to 3-year lows. In China, the PBoC kept the benchmark interest rate for 1 & 5Y loans unchanged at 3.45% and 4.2%, respectively. In Japan, August’s trade deficit came in above expectations although exports and imports slowed down less than expected.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would remain flat with a slight bullish slant, awaiting the Fed’s message. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.08% (the S&P 500 ended up +0.41% vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US rose (VIX 14.11). Asian stock markets are siding (China’s CSI 300 -0.21%, Japan’s Nikkei -0.52%).
Today the US Fed and Brazil’s Central Bank will hold their meetings. In the UK we will learn August’s inflation.
Iberdrola is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates in four segments: network business, which includes all the energy transmission and distribution activities, and other regulated activity originated in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and Brazil; deregulated business, which includes electricity generation and sales businesses as well as gas trading and storage businesses carried on by Co. in Spain, Portugal, the U.K. and North America; renewable business, with activities related to renewable energies in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and the rest of the world; and other businesses, including the engineering and construction businesses and the non-power businesses.
Repsol is an oil and gas company. Co. is engaged in all the activities relating to the oil and gas industry, including exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas, transportation of oil products, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas, refining, the production of a wide range of oil products and the retailing of oil products, oil derivatives, petrochemicals, LPG and natural gas, as well as the generation, transportation, distribution and supply of electricity. Co. operates in more than 40 countries. Co.'s operations are divided into four segments: Upstream, Downstream, LNG and Gas Natural Fenosa.
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