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IBERIAN DAILY 18 FEBRUARY + 4Q’24 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ENAGÁS.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’24 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Stock markets at record highs
European stock markets rallied, hitting new highs, driven by defence companies, in a session marked by the geopolitical news and amid talks to find an end to the war in Ukraine. In the STOXX 600, Industrials (underpinned by the gains of defence companies) and Financials were the best-performing sectors whereas Real Estate and Consumer Goods posted the biggest drops. On the macro side, in Spain, the public debt ended 2024 at 101.8% of GDP (vs. 105.1 prev.) although the debt of Public Administrations rose to € 1.6 Trillion (€ +40 Bn in the past year). In the US, P. Harker from the Fed bet on keeping rates against the current backdrop although being optimistic about the performance of inflation, which will enable lower rates in the long-term. As for OPEC, there is speculation it would once again delay the production increase that would start in April of this year.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight profit taking, with all eyes on the earnings calendar. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.2% (the S&P 500 was closed for holiday). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 -0.71% and Japan’s Nikkei +0.37%).
Today will be marked by the peace talks between the US and Russia in Saudi Arabia. In the UK we will learn December’s unemployment rate, in Germany February’s ZEW index, in the US February’s Empire manufacturing index and (NAHB) residential construction confidence index. In US business results, Allegion, Medtronic, Arista Networks and Devon Energy, among others, will release its earnings.


COMPANY NEWS
ENAGAS. Better FY2024 results, dividend maintained, although capex raised in SP’25-30 update. OVERWEIGHT
EBITDA’24 (excl. asset rotation) reached € 760.7 M (-2.5% vs. 2023 ex-rotation, vs. € 740 M BS(e), consensus and guidance) and Net Profit’24 (ex-rotation) at € 310.1 M (+3.2% vs. 2023, vs. € 298 M BS(e) and € 280 M consensus and guidance). Including the capital losses from the sale of TGE and GSP (€ -609.4 M), Net Profit came in at € -299.3 M. We highlight the strong performance in investees, the improved operating expenses and the financial result. NFD’24 fell to € 2.40 Bn (€ -943 M due to the sale of TGE) and FFO/NFD came in at 28.7% vs. 18.7% previously. The 2025 guidelines assume € 265 M of Net Profit (vs. € 257 M consensus and BS) and € 670 M of EBITDA (vs. € 677 M BS and consensus). In the Strategic Plan the company maintains its € 1.00/sh. dividend (8% yield) through 2026, raising capex-25-30 up to € 4.04 Bn (vs. € 3.4 Bn previously), setting the NFD target’26 at € 4.4 Bn and EBITDA growth at +2.5% CAGR’24-30e (2026-30 at +9.5%). Despite the good FY2024 results the market reaction could be neutral in view of the ambitious Strategic Plan in capex and EBITDA growth, mainly with the current low visibility on the gas and hydrogen framework.