IBERIAN DAILY 29 AUGUST (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: ENAGÁS.
Powell warns of prematurely loosening monetary policy
European stock markets ended the week with drops of more than -3.0%, dragged down by energy fears in Europe (new maintenance shutdown for NS1 with a threat from the Russian Security Council deputy chairman Dmitry Medvedev of cutting off gas supply, which would lead has prices up +40% this winter) and Powell’s hawkish speech in Jackson Hole. With all this in mind, Euribor futures and Fed Funds in the US foretell greater monetary tightening that was reflected in the rising sovereign debt yields and in Powell’s speech, which predicted greater rate hikes in order to combat inflation (the next rate hike will depend on macro data) and stressed the danger of loosening monetary policy too early. Thus, in the Euro STOXX, Energy (thanks to the oil price rally) was the only sector to record gains, followed by Basic Materials, whereas Real Estate and especially Retail (-9.5%) were the biggest losers over the week. On the macro side, in the US wholesale inventories and personal income and outlays for July came in below expectations, whereas University of Michigan consumer confidence beat expectations. In France, the door has been opened for taxes on companies’ windfall profits to be imposed (basically energy companies), and requests are growing for a gas price ceiling to be set to limit its impact on electricity costs.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with losses, dragged down by doubts surrounding gas supply and the sharp drops on Friday in the US. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.8% (the S&P 500 ended down -1.4% vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US rose (VIX 25.56%). Asian markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 -0.7% and Japan’s Nikkei -2.5%).
Today in the US we will learn the Dallas Fed index. In debt auctions: France (3M, 6M and 12M t-bills) and Germany (6M and 12M t-bills).