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IBERIAN DAILY 12 JANUARY (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ENCE.

Stock markets rise awaiting US inflation data
It was a transition session in Europe ahead of the publication of the US inflation data for December (which will be released today), with some signs pointing to a more significant slowdown than the 6.5% expected. Within the Euro STOXX, the best-performing sectors were Real Estate and Retail, whereas Insurance and Travel & Leisure saw the day’s biggest drops. On the macro side, industrial output contracted by -1.1% from 2.1% in November. From the ECB, O. Rehn claimed that rates should be raised significantly in upcoming meetings to curb inflation, which is still too high. In the US, used car prices contracted by -14.9% in 2022, which hints at a slowdown in December’s inflation data. From the Fed, S. Collins supports a +25bps rate hike in February and does not expect rates to rise above 5%, although this will depend on macro data. In Brazil, November’s retail sales increased at a lower rate than expected. In Japan, according to the press, next week the effects of the second round of the ultra-accommodative policy will be reviewed. In China, December’s inflation rose in line with expectations.
What we expect for today
The European stock markets would open with gains awaiting the publication of the US inflation data, which will mark the second half of the session. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.1% (the S&P 500 ended +0.7% higher vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US dropped (VIX 21.09). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.25% and Japan’s Nikkei +0.1%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn the ECB’s monthly report, and in the US weekly jobless claims and December’s inflation. In debt auctions: Spain (€ 7.25 Bn in bonds due 2029, 2026, 2046 and I/L bonds due 2033).