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IBERIAN DAILY 13 SEPTEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ENCE, IAG, SIEMENS GAMESA.

Awaiting inflation data
European stock markets kicked the week off with gains of around +2%, driven by optimism surrounding inflation forecasts in the US (which could fall to 8.0% according to the consensus) and by the solid performance by financials after the ECB’s rate hikes. Thus, once again in the Euro STOXX the best-performing sectors were Retail and Banks. By contrast, Telecoms and Technology posted the smallest gains. On the macro side, in the UK, July’s industrial output contracted unexpectedly, whereas the monthly GDP estimate rose less than expected in July, suggesting economic stagnation in 3Q’22. In Germany, the IFO institute warns about stagflation, cutting expected growth in 2023 to -0.3%, following suit Kiel’s institute, which foresees -0.9%. Moreover, the country would be studying the possibility of opening NordStream2 in order to increase gas supply. In the US, the NY Fed survey underscored slight drops in 1 & 3Y inflation expectations to 5.7% and 2.8%, respectively.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open flat, with a slight bullish slant, awaiting US inflation data. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.2% (the S&P 500 ended +0.4% higher vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US rose (VIX 23.87). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.65% and Japan’s Nikkei +0.17%).
Today in Germany and Spain we will learn August’s final inflation, in the UK July’s ILO unemployment rate, in the euro zone September’s ZEW index and in the US August’s inflation. As for auctions, Spain will issue € 2.5 Bn in 3 & 9M T-bills, Italy € 7.5 Bn in bonds due 2025, 2029 and 2046 and Germany € 5.5 Bn in bonds due 2024.