IBERIAN DAILY 23 JULY + 2Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: AMPER, ENCE, FCC, IBERDROLA, INDRA, GLOBAL DOMINION, METROVACESA.At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 2Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.
AMPER, ENCE, FCC, IBERDROLA, INDRA, GLOBAL DOMINION, METROVACESA.
D. Trump announces new trade agreement with Japan
With the exception of the Ibex, which remained flat, it was a new session of drops of around -1.0% for European stock exchanges, awaiting new drivers from the ECB meeting to be held tomorrow, tariffs or the earnings season. In the STOXX 600, Basic Resources and Media were the best performers vs. Construction and Industrial that fared worse. On the macro side, in Spain the anti-blackout decree was not approved at the Congress due to the political parties PP, Vox, Junts and Podemos that voted against it. In the US, July’s Richmond Fed dropped more than expected to Sep’24 lows. In Mexico, May’s retail sales climbed more than expected and May’s IGAE economic activity remained in negative territory after recovering less than expected. On the trade front, D. Trump announced a new trade agreement between the Us and Japan that will mean a general 15% tariff including autos but excluding steel and aluminium (that remain at 50%) and defence spending. In US business results, General Motors beat expectations, Coca Cola and Phillip Morris were in line and Halliburton came in worse than expected.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of around +1% thanks to Autos, welcoming the trade agreement. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.25% (the S&P 500 ended +0.3% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are climbing (China’s CSI 300 +0.74% and Japan’s Nikkei +3.6%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn July’s consumer confidence, in the US June’s existing home sales. In US business results Tesla, Alphabet, T-Mobile and Hilton, among others, will release their earnings.
COMPANY NEWS
ENCE. Results fully in line with expectations. OVERWEIGHT.
Results in the pulp division are marked by the negative FX effect and by increased discounts (despite the fact that demand continued to grow by +3% in the 1H’25 the market remains hit by the global uncertainty about trade and tariff tensions) and in energy by higher production and lower prices. Thus, 2Q’25 total sales came in at € 192.3 M (-21.4% vs. -21.9% BS(e) and -18.8% consensus and +3% vs. 1Q’25) whereas 2Q’25 EBITDA totalled € 23.5 M (-64.1% vs. -63.2% BS(e) and -64.3% consensus and -31.7% vs. 1Q’25). We do not foresee any impact from these results. We welcome demand growth, remaining confident in the message that 2H’25 should benefit from demand, restocking and easing trade and tariff tensions. The share price has slid -7% in 2025 (-28% vs. IBEX).
G.DOMINION. 2Q’25 Results in line with expectations. Guidance’25 unchanged. OVERWEIGHT.
2Q’25 Results in line in EBITDA (€ 38 M; vs. € 38 M BS(e) and € 37 M consensus; +4% vs. 2Q’24), with organic growth speeding up to +10% in 1H’25 (vs. +7% in 1Q’25). Net Profit dropped to € -4 M (vs. € 1 M euros BS(e)) due to a valuation correction of € -14 M on PV assets in the Dominican Republic explained by the devaluation of the dollar (without impact on cash). NFD rose by € 24 M to € 207 M (~1,4x DFN/EBITDA), better than our € 220 M estimate (€ 193 M consensus). As the company failed to make any specific mention, we assume it maintains its guidance unchanged. In short, robust 2Q’25 results where we do not foresee a relevant market impact as the share price has climbed +29% in 2025 (+8% vs. IBEX).
IBERDROLA. Announces capital increase through accelerated bookbuild. Results slightly beat expectations on reported level. OVERWEIGHT
IBE has announced a € 5 Bn capital increase (~5% of market cap) through an accelerated bookbuild in order to take advantage of investments, with a guidance price of €~15.10/sh. (-5% vs. yesterday’s closing price). With this placement the growth plan would be fully funded through 2030, and the positive impact on EPS is confirmed. As for the 1H’25 results, they are slightly better in reported EBITDA (€ 8.29 Bn of EBITDA, +4.9% vs. +3% BS(e) and consensus) and in reported Net Profit (+20% vs. 1H’24, excluding capital gains in Mexico, +16% BS(e) and +12% consensus). The stock is suspended from trading today.
METROVACESA. Weak 1H’25 results, but 2025 targets reiterated. UNDERWEIGHT
The 1H’25 results are poor due to the distribution of deliveries in 2025. Sales reached € 133 M (-43% vs. -34% BS(e)), EBITDA € 5 M (-83% vs. -72% BS(e)). EBITDA fell sharply vs. last year because the low revenues do not dilute the fixed costs. The number of deliveries was quite low (only 423 units, 21% of what we expect for the full year and -37% less than in 1H’24), and for this reason the P&L statement is not representative of what we will see by the year end. Presales are also lower than the past few quarters, both in absolute terms (382 units vs. average of 476 units over the past five quarters) and in the percentage of marketed products. The average price is higher (+12% vs. 1Q’24), something the company chalks up to a strategy of prioritising margin over volume. The company reiterates its targets for the full year and highlights that, as of 30 June, 96% of the deliveries forecast in 2025 had already been presold and ~60% had already been finished. Although the results are poor, we believe they are not representative of what we should expect for the full year, and thus we do not believe they will have a significant impact on the share price.
Ence Energia Y Celulosa is engaged in the manufacture and commercialization of wood pulp and derivatives. Co. divides its activities into the following two business lines: Forest Division: Co. manages timberlands in South America and the Iberian Peninsula. Co. is involved in trading of wood, and supplies solid wood products including: plywood, sawn timber, parquet flooring and glued-edge paneling. Co. is involved in forest and environmental consulting. Pulp Division and Energy Production: Co. is engaged in the production of Eucalyptus globulus-based TCF and ECF paper pulp. Co. is also involved in the generation of electricity through biomass power producing plants.
Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas is the parent company of a group engaged in sanitation services, cleaning, maintaining, purification and distribution of water, construction of highways, hydraulic works, marine works, air and rail transport infrastructure, urban developments, housing, non-residential buildings, office buildings, toll highways, parking garages, marinas and water treatment plants. Co. is also engaged in the manufacture and sale of cement and cement infrastructures, such as precast concrete elements; and in the financial markets, and real estate development, leasing and tourism.
Global Dominion Access SA is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the construction and engineering sector. The Company's activities are divided into two segments: Multi-technological Services, which offers design, implementation and maintenance of fixed and mobile telecommunications networks, manages sales and distribution processes for telecommunications carriers, as well as renders of inspection, maintenance, repair and renovation services for industrial and energy firms, and Solutions and EPCs, which executes turnkey Engineering-Procurement-Construction (EPC) projects, provides construction, repair and renovation of industrial heating installations, as well as develops processes and other technological and business solutions in numerous sectors. Its services are provided in three areas: Technology and Telecommunications (T&T), Industry and Renewable energies. It operates worldwide in Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa. The Company is a subsidiary of CIE Automotive SA.
Iberdrola is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates in four segments: network business, which includes all the energy transmission and distribution activities, and other regulated activity originated in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and Brazil; deregulated business, which includes electricity generation and sales businesses as well as gas trading and storage businesses carried on by Co. in Spain, Portugal, the U.K. and North America; renewable business, with activities related to renewable energies in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and the rest of the world; and other businesses, including the engineering and construction businesses and the non-power businesses.
Indra Sistemas is engaged in the design, development, manufacture, assembly, repair, and installation of computer software and applications. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in consulting, graphic design and multimedia, web design and marketing, internet development and electronic trade, systems integration and hosting geared business to business and business to consumer, as well as in internet financing and electronic marketing. Co. serves defense and security, transport and traffic, energy and industry, telecom and media, finance and insurance, and public administration and healthcare markets. Co. operates primarily in Europe, the United States, Canada, and Latin America.
Metrovacesa SA, formerly Metrovacesa Suelo y Promocion SA, is a Spain-based real estate developer. The Company specializes in construction and sale of sustainable housing, both single-family and multi-family residential properties. Its activities also include promotion, urbanization and parceling of real estate in general, as well as real estate management for own benefit or on behalf of third parties. Its asset portfolio includes more than 6 million square meters of building land across Spain, as well as already developed properties in cities, such as Malaga, Almeria, Cordoba, Barcelona and Madrid, among others.
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