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IBERIAN DAILY 19 FEBRUARY + 4Q’24 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ENDESA, INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL, METROVACESA.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’24 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Stock markets continued to rise
European stock markets ended with new gains amid talks about the war in Ukraine. In this regard, the positions of the US and Russia are apparently far given the deployment of NATO soldiers and the elections to be later held in Ukraine. In the STOXX 600, Banks and Industrials were the best-performing sectors whereas Travel&Leisure and Technology posted the biggest drops. The latest BofA survey shows that the confidence of investors in stock markets is at highs from 2010 with cash levels at lows since that date, with the consensus that global stock markets will outperform the US (the increase in positions in Europe continues). On the macro side, in the UK, December’s unemployment rate remained at 4.4% unexpectedly (better) and wage gains rose more than expected. In Germany, the ZEW index improved more than expected in February. In the US the Empire manufacturing index recovered more than expected in February, returning to levels consistent with growth. However, the residential construction confidence index (NAHB) deteriorated unexpected in February. On the geopolitical front, Ukraine peace talks between the US and Russia include a ceasefire and elections in Ukraine. Separately, Trump reiterated possible 25% tariffs on automobiles, and even higher ones on medicines and chips starting on 2 April. In US business results Allegion and Vulcan Materials beat expectations whereas Medtronic was in line.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight drops with D. Trump’s insistent tariff threat that would mainly affect Autos and Technology (where Intel’s good results could offset this performance). Currently, S&P futures are up +0.1% (the S&P 500 ended +0.2% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 +0.56% and Japan’s Nikkei -0.27%).
Today in the UK we will learn January’s inflation, in the US January’s building permits, housing starts and the Fed minutes. In US business results, Trimble, Analog Devices, Garmin, Devon Energy and Occidental Petroleum, among others, will release its earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

METROVACESA. FY2024 Results above expectations in deliveries. OVERWEIGHT
The results showed a higher number of deliveries than expected (1,996 units vs. 1,775 units) and higher land sales. Sales: € 658 M (+12% vs. +6% BS(e)); EBITDA: € 73 M (-1% vs. -12% BS(e)); Net Profit: € 15.9 M (€ -21 M in 2023 vs. € 17 M BS(e)). The development EBITDA (ex land sales) came in at 12.8% (in line). Pre-sales were more than favourable, being in line with expectations: 1,929 units, consistent with the run-rate of around 2,000 units annually set by the company (in the 2H the company sacrificed volume to capture higher margins). The delivery coverage for the coming years is high and enables high revenue visibility: >80% for 2025 and 62% for 2026. Good results, in our view, which should have a positive market impact.

4Q’24 Results highlights and rest of previews
Of the stocks releasing their earnings over the coming days, on the positive side we highlight CAF (releasing on 26/02), where we expect a solid quarter that will finally dispel the doubts that came after the 3Q’24 results: (i) boost to the commercial momentum (order intake € >1.7 Bn BS(e)), (ii) recovery in Solaris (4Q’24 sales +45% BS(e)) and (iii) the strong performance in the Rail business, which should underpin the share price that, although it has recovered part of the drop after the 3Q’24 results, is still -4% below Oct’24 highs, and our T.P. yields attractive +46.4% upside.