SECTOR PETRÓLEO: CRUDO POR DEBAJO DEL BREAK EVEN - SENSIBILIDADES (ANÃLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
El crudo brent cotiza a 36 dólares/ barril cayendo hoy un -20% tras la ruptura de negociaciones entre la OPEP y Rusia el viernes. A estos niveles se rompe absolutamente el punto que el sector indica como nivel de break even de 45-55 dólares. Según nuestros cálculos, ±1 dólar de crudo tiene un impacto de ±2.1% en la valoración de REP (-1,9% en EBIT ajustado/ -2,4% en BPA), -2,4% en ENI (-2,1% en EBIT ajustado, -3,4% en BPA) y -2,2% en TOT (-1.3% en EBIT ajustado, -2,1% en BPA). AsÃ, nuestra primera conclusión es que REP, cayendo un -13%, descuenta un precio del crudo a perpetuidad de 39 dólares (vs 45 ENI y 46 TOT) por lo que podemos decir que está recibiendo un castigo exagerado, al menos en relativo al resto.Nuestra previsión es que el precio del crudo vuelva a niveles que consideramos razonables (55-60 dólares) hacia finales de año, mientras serÃa esperable que el coronavirus vaya remitiendo en el número de contagios a corto plazo. Un recorte de producción de la OPEP y/o el anuncio inminente de polÃticas fiscales en EE.UU. y Europa podrÃa llevar a un rebote mucho más intenso y de corto plazo en el precio del crudo (cuyas estimaciones no revisamos de momento ya que aunque la media de 2020 se verá afectada, en nuestro escenario tendrÃa impacto mÃnimo a largo plazo).
No revisamos valoración por la falta de visibilidad aunque reconocemos que los potenciales parecen ahora desfasados, mantenemos nuestras recomendaciones y vemos oportunidades de COMPRAR en nuestras apuestas REP y TOT.
Eni is engaged in the oil and gas exploration and production, gas marketing operations, management of gas infrastructures, power generation, petrochemicals, oil field services and engineering industries. Co.'s operations are divided into three segments; Exploration and Production (oil and natural gas exploration and field development and production, as well as LNG operations), Gas and Power (supply, trading and marketing of gas and electricity, managing gas infrastructures for transport, distribution, storage, re-gasification, and LNG supply and marketing), and Refining and Marketing (supply of crude oil, refining and marketing of refined products). Co. maintains operations in 73 countries.
Repsol is an oil and gas company. Co. is engaged in all the activities relating to the oil and gas industry, including exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas, transportation of oil products, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas, refining, the production of a wide range of oil products and the retailing of oil products, oil derivatives, petrochemicals, LPG and natural gas, as well as the generation, transportation, distribution and supply of electricity. Co. operates in more than 40 countries. Co.'s operations are divided into four segments: Upstream, Downstream, LNG and Gas Natural Fenosa.
Total is an international integrated oil and gas company also active in solar and biomass energy sources. Co. engages all aspects of the petroleum industry, including Upstream operations (oil and gas exploration, development and production, and LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas)) and Downstream operations (refining, petrochemicals, specialty chemicals, marketing and marketing and trading and shipping of crude oil and petroleum products). In addition, Co. is engaged in the coal mining and power generation sectors. Co.'s worldwide operations are conducted through three business segments: Upstream, Refining & Chemicals, and Marketing & Services.
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