IBERIAN DAILY 08 NOVEMBER + 3Q’24 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: FCC, GRIFOLS, IAG.At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’24 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.
Rally in the euro zone
Yesterday European stock markets recovered ground whereas the rally to new record highs continued in the US. Thus, in the STOXX 600, most sectors ended with gains (15/20), led by Basic Resources and Autos vs. the bigger drops of Telecoms and Household. On the macro side, in the euro zone, September’s retail sales rose more than expected. In Spain, September’s industrial output climbed above expectations whereas in Germany it was disappointing, falling sharply. In the UK, as expected, the BoE cut interest rates to 4.75%. In the US, in line with expectations, the Fed cut benchmark rates by -25bps to 4.5%-4.75% and with a slightly less lenient statement on inflation J. Powell warned about a slower cut pace going forward. In Japan, household spending. Fell more than expected. In US business results, Moderna and Ralph beat expectations.
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open with gains of less than +0.5%. Currently, S&P futures are flat (the S&P 500 ended +0.06% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 -0.81%, Japan’s Nikkei +0.28%).
Today in Brazil we will learn October’s inflation and in the US November’s University of Michigan consumer confidence. In US business results, NRG and Paramount, among others, will release their earnings.
COMPANY NEWS
GRIFOLS, OVERWEIGHT
The 3Q’24 results were in line with expectations on the operating level (adjusted EBITDA of € 462 M vs. € 463 M consensus) and with strong cash performance in both FCF (€ 127 M in 3Q’24) and debt, which fell to 5.1x NFD/adjusted EBITDA (vs. 5.5x in 1H’24 and 5.3x BS(e)). GRF has maintained the guidance’24 for adjusted EBITDA of above € 1.8 Bn (vs. € 1.77 Bn consensus), FCF of € 5 M (vs. € -80 M BS(e)) and indebtedness of ~4.5x NFD/EBITDA’24. This last guidance is demanding in our view, bearing in mind that 4Q’24 will see a significant amount of working capital burned (inventories).
We do not expect a significant impact, despite the poor performance (-31% on the year and -45% vs. IBEX).
Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas is the parent company of a group engaged in sanitation services, cleaning, maintaining, purification and distribution of water, construction of highways, hydraulic works, marine works, air and rail transport infrastructure, urban developments, housing, non-residential buildings, office buildings, toll highways, parking garages, marinas and water treatment plants. Co. is also engaged in the manufacture and sale of cement and cement infrastructures, such as precast concrete elements; and in the financial markets, and real estate development, leasing and tourism.
International Airlines Group is an international scheduled airline and global premium airlines. Co.'s principal place of business is London with significant presence at Heathrow, Gatwick and London City airports.
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