IBERIAN DAILY 27 OCTOBER + 3Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: FCC, METROVACESA.At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.
Awaiting D. Trump and X. Jinping’s meeting
It was a week of gains for European stock markets with all eyes on the performance of business results and the trade talks between the US and China. In the STOXX 600, Energy (driven by the rally of crude oil) and Services led the gains, with Telecommunications and Household being the worst relative performers. On the macro side, in the euro zone, October’s services and manufacturing PMI provided a positive surprise, particularly in Germany. In the US, September’s inflation beat expectations after climbing to 3.0% vs. 2.9% prev., whereas October’s PMI improved vs. the previous data, as opposed to the University of Michigan Consumer confidence that came in slightly below expectations. In China, industrial profits rose in September to 21.6% vs. 20.4% previously. On the trade front, the US and China reached a preliminary agreement ahead of the first meeting between D. Trump and X. Xinping whereas the terms of the agreement with Vietnam were made public and Brazil also announced a possible tariff reduction but Canada will see a 10% increase. In Argentina, J. Milei’s party (LLA) won the parliamentary renewal elections and in the absence of a majority he ensured greater support in Deputies and Senators to tackle the fiscal and pension reform. US business results, P&G, HCA Healthcare and General Dynamics beat expectations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of +0.5%, with cyclical stocks faring better. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.9% (the S&P 500 ended -0.12% lower vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.88% and Japan’s Nikkei +2.4%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn M3, in Germany October’s IFO and in the US September’s durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims. In US business results NXP semiconductors, Welltower and Nucor, among others, will release their earnings.
COMPANY NEWS
METROVACESA. 9M’25 Operating figures. UNDERWEIGHT
The company has released some operating figures as of Sep’25, updated its cashflow guidance and also announced the first dividend against 2025 reserves. Deliveries grew +2% vs. last year (with an easy-to-beat comparison), in a year when most of the deliveries will come in Q4. Thus, as of Sep’25 the company had delivered 812 units vs. its full-year guidance of ~1,700-1,800 units (and 1,875 units BS(e)), with a gross margin of 22.5% (which it expects to increase in Q4, in line with our estimate). As for presales, in view of the strong demand and solid coverage ratios, the company is prioritizing price over volume, with the average price rising +13% and volume falling -21%. Thus, presales fell -10% to € 458 M. Coverage ratios (presales over delivery target) for 2025-26-27 are 100%/85%/48%. Additionally, MVC has mentioned that it expects to significantly improve the initial operating cashflow guidance (more than € 150 M, vs. € 170 M BS(e)) due to better margin and working capital expectations vs. the previous forecasts. Lastly, the company announced it will propose at the EGM (25/11) a € 1.12/sh. dividend (+239% vs. 2023, vs. € 0.40 BS(e), 2.6% yield) as first interim dividend against 2025 results. We welcome the improvement of the cash generation and associated dividend prospects although the delivery and pre-sales figures are below our annual expectations (but not significantly). In any case, in view of the dearth of supply and the strong demand we believe that the company’s strategy of optimising prices and cashflows makes sense.
Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas is the parent company of a group engaged in sanitation services, cleaning, maintaining, purification and distribution of water, construction of highways, hydraulic works, marine works, air and rail transport infrastructure, urban developments, housing, non-residential buildings, office buildings, toll highways, parking garages, marinas and water treatment plants. Co. is also engaged in the manufacture and sale of cement and cement infrastructures, such as precast concrete elements; and in the financial markets, and real estate development, leasing and tourism.
Metrovacesa SA, formerly Metrovacesa Suelo y Promocion SA, is a Spain-based real estate developer. The Company specializes in construction and sale of sustainable housing, both single-family and multi-family residential properties. Its activities also include promotion, urbanization and parceling of real estate in general, as well as real estate management for own benefit or on behalf of third parties. Its asset portfolio includes more than 6 million square meters of building land across Spain, as well as already developed properties in cities, such as Malaga, Almeria, Cordoba, Barcelona and Madrid, among others.
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