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FERROVIAL: 1Q’21 RESULTS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

1Q'21 vs. 1Q'20 Results:
Sales: € 1.365 Bn (-1.0% vs. -0.2% BS(e) and -1.4% consensus);
EBITDA: € 119.0 M (+58.7% vs. +33.7% BS(e) and +22.7% consensus);
EBIT: € 61.0 M (+134.6% vs. +103.8% BS(e) and +130.8% consensus);
Net Profit: € -86.0 M (€ -111.0 M in 1Q'20 vs. € -93.54 M BS(e) and € -66.0 M consensus);
The 1Q’21 results came in as expected on the operating and cash levels. Recovery of the Managed Lanes closer. EBITDA came in above expectations (€ 119 M vs. € 100 M BS(e) and € 97 M consensus) thanks to a reversion of provisions on the corporate level (€>12 M BS(e)), with no impact on cash. Excl. This factor, EBITDA would have been very much in line. By divisions, Toll Roads beat expectations slightly (€ 67 M of EBITDA vs. €~60 M BS(e) and € 62 M consensus) thanks to the good performance of Managed Lanes (19% T.P.) that reached pre-Covid traffic levels in March with the end of mobility restrictions. Construction (€ 41 M vs. €~42 M BS(e) and consensus) continued the good performance seen in previous quarters, as expected. There were no surprises in Net Profit (€-86 M vs. €-94 M BS(e)), beyond the negative performance of financial derivatives in Autema (with no impact on cash).
The company’s net cash position ex. infra decreased by -3.8% to € 1.91 Bn, in line with our estimates (€ 1.89 Bn BS(e)) despite higher Capex (€-129 M vs. €-89 M BS(e)) thanks to a good working capital performance (€-121 M vs. €-159 M BS(e)). Thus, liquidity remained at extraordinarily high levels (€ 7.55 Bn vs. € 7.96 Bn as of 4Q’20; ~2.8x NFD).
In short, the 1Q’21 results came in as expected on the operating and cash levels, although they conveyed a positive feeling regarding traffic recovery in the US, where restrictions are being lifted, which we believe might lead to a positive share price reaction, despite the stock’s recent performance (+14% since 4Q’20; +6% vs. IBEX35 and +0% vs. Eurostoxx Const.&Mat). BUY. T.P. € 27.00/sh. (+11% upside).