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IBERIAN DAILY 02 JANUARY (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ELECTRICITY SECTOR, FERROVIAL.

IBEX stands out as the best index in the euro zone
European stock markets ended the last session of the year with losses due to 2 global problems: the high inflation and war between Russia and Ukraine. Despite the accumulated drops, the IBEX ended the year as the best-performing index vs. its peers (-5.2% vs. Euro STOXX -11.5%, DAX -12.3%, CAC -9.0% and MIB -12.6%). In the Euro STOXX the best-performing sector on the year was Energy (with gains of more than +20%), followed by Insurance (which ended the year with slight gains). The rest of the sectors suffered heavy losses, with Real Estate (-40.8%) and Technology (-27.0%) standing out. On the macro side, in Spain December’s inflation fell more than expected to 5.8% YoY, although the core figure rose to 6.9%. From the ECB, Lagarde highlighted the risks of the second round of inflation (salaries could be rising more than expected) and announced new rate hikes. From the IMF, K. Georgieva forecast another complicated year due to the simultaneous downturn in the US, Europe and China. In the US, the Chicago PMI for December rose more than expected. In China, December’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs fell more than expected. Xi Jinping recognised the challenges from reopening the economy and that the country is in a new situation vs. Covid-19.
What we expect for today
European markets would open more stable, awaiting drivers to define performance. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.27% (the S&P 500 ended unchanged vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US rose (VIX 21.67). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 +0.4% and Japan’s Nikkei 0%).
Today in the euro zone and Spain we will learn December’s final PMIs, and in Spain December’s unemployment.