EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 24 OCTOBER + 3Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: FERROVIAL, INDRA, NEINOR HOMES, VISCOFAN.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Awaiting US inflation data
European stock markets ended the session better than they began, rallying after the opening of the US markets and ending mostly with gains. The IBEX, now above 15,800, is very close to record highs. In the STOXX 600, Energy and Basic Materials led the gains, with Travel&Leisure and Pharma being the worst relative performers. On the macro side, in the euro zone, October’s consumer confidence recovered unexpectedly. In the US, second-hand home sales rose in September in line with forecasts, whereas the Kansas Fed manufacturing index rose in October more than expected. In Mexico, August’s retail sales were surprisingly low, remaining at the 2.4% YoY from July. In China, the Govt. is pushing a 5-year plan for technological and scientific independence. In trade matters, the US was confident it will reach an agreement with China (Trump and Xinping would meet on 30 October), while Trump announced a breakdown in trade talks with Canada, where Stellantis and GM will see their tax-free import quotas to Canada reduced. In US business results, T-Mobile was in line, Blackstone beat expectations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight gains of +0.2%, with strong performance by tech stocks. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.20% (the S&P 500 ended +0.16% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +1.0% and Japan’s Nikkei +1.4%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn October’s PMIs and in the US September’s inflation and October’s PMIs. In US business results P&G and HCA Healthcare, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

VISCOFAN. 3Q’25 Results below expectations in EBITDA. Guidance lowered. OVERWEIGHT
The 3Q’25 sales slightly beat expectations, but were clearly below in EBITDA, with the margin falling -150bps (to 23%; vs. -80bps BS(e) and +120bps consensus). The company has reduced its guidance’25 due to FX: (i) sales -4pp of growth vs. previous; (ii) EBITDA -6pp of growth vs. previous; (iii) margin around -50bps. Thus, we lower our estimates for sales and EBITDA’25 by around -3%, leaving an EBITDA margin of 24%. Furthermore, we lower our T.P. to € 69/sh. (-4% vs. previous), where we also reduce the residual margin by -100bps (this is partly offset by the rollover’26). The company has made no mention of the accusations made recently by Hunterbrook. We expect a negative reception.

NEINOR HOMES, OVERWEIGHT
After yesterday’s closing bell the company announced a capital increase without preemptive rights via an accelerated bookbuild (ABB) whereby it will issue up to 8.9 M shares (9.9% of the previous total) at a price of € 15.73/sh. (-7% vs. closing price, +10% premium over NAV) for a maximum of € 140 M. Orion Capital subscribes € 100 M, increasing its stake to ~29% of the capital (from the previous 24.5%), whereas the rest will be placed among current institutional shareholders.
HOME justifies the deal to strengthen its balance sheet and increase financial flexibility, giving the group the option to undertake growth opportunities in the short term in the Spanish residential market.
We did not expect this capital increase, the second this year, which will have a small negative impact on our valuation (-1.7%), as it comes at a price below our T.P. That said, it is also true the capital increase is a clear display of confidence from the main shareholder in the project, which is always positive.
We understand that in view of the possibility of once again buying land at a good price, HOME has preferred to carry out the capital increase and maintain its pledge of a high dividend, instead of cancelling it. Both capital increases have come without preemptive rights, making them more agile than traditional capital increases (with rights), but with the inconvenience of hurting retail shareholders, which do not have access to these placements.