IBERIAN DAILY 28 MARCH (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: FLUIDRA, GRUPO CATALANA OCCIDENTE, ELECTRICITY SECTOR, IAG, METROVACESA, NATURGY, OHLA, REPSOL.Tariffs remain in the spotlight
European stock markets fell once again (except the peripheral indices IBEX and Italian Mib, which closed with minimal gains), marked by Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on imported cars. Thus, in the STOXX 600, Retail and Utilities posted the biggest gains, with Autos and Construction leading the drops. On the macro side, in the euro zone February’s M3 rose more than expected, with private sector loans standing out. In Spain, February’s retail sales rose more than expected. In Norway, the Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 0.4%. In the US, the third reading of the 4Q’24 GDP was raised +0.1%, weekly jobless claims rose slightly (in line with expectations) and pending home sales rose more than expected. In Japan, March’s Tokyo inflation rose more than expected. On the geopolitical side, Europe will not lift the sanctions on Russia until there is a definitive ceasefire, and the UK and France will study sending troops to Ukraine.
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open with new drops of as much as -0.5% amid the trade war and possible retaliations that could be announced by Europe shortly. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.09% (the S&P 500 ended flat vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 -0.30% and Japan’s Nikkei -2.1%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn March’s economic confidence index, in Germany March’s unemployment rate and in the US February’s personal outlays and consumption deflator.
COMPANY NEWS
GRUPO CATALANA OCCIDENTE. Voluntary TOB to delist stock. ACCEPT BID
After yesterday closing bell, GCO’s majority shareholder, InocSA (62.03% of the capital), announced a voluntary TOB on 37.97% of GCO. It offers two alternatives: (i) cash payment of € 50/sh. (18.3% premium over yesterday’s closing price; -8% vs. consensus T.P. and in line with our T.P.) or (ii) a swap for shares in InocSA (1 InocSA share x 43.85 GCO shares). If the company reaches a 75% stake, it will make a delisting tender offer. We think it will be difficult for the share price to reach the TOB price within a reasonable amount of time, as it includes a significant illiquidity discount and we believe InocSA will easily reach the percentage needed for the delisting. For all these reasons, our recommendation is to ACCEPT THE BID via cash payment.
Fluidra is engaged in the manufacture and commercialization of accessories and specific products for swimming pools, irrigation, and water treatment and purification systems.
Grupo Catalana Occidente is an insurance group based in Spain. Co. is engaged in insurance and reinsurance activities, including commercial, life, disability, and automobile insurance. Co. is also engaged in the sale of annuities and pension funds. Co.'s operations are organized along two businesses: Traditional business (insurance) and Credit Insurance business. Co.'s main markets are located in Spain, Germany, United Kingdom, France and the Netherlands. Co. maintains a presence in more than 40 countries.
International Airlines Group is an international scheduled airline and global premium airlines. Co.'s principal place of business is London with significant presence at Heathrow, Gatwick and London City airports.
Metrovacesa SA, formerly Metrovacesa Suelo y Promocion SA, is a Spain-based real estate developer. The Company specializes in construction and sale of sustainable housing, both single-family and multi-family residential properties. Its activities also include promotion, urbanization and parceling of real estate in general, as well as real estate management for own benefit or on behalf of third parties. Its asset portfolio includes more than 6 million square meters of building land across Spain, as well as already developed properties in cities, such as Malaga, Almeria, Cordoba, Barcelona and Madrid, among others.
Obrascon Huarte Lain is an international concession and construction groups based in Spain. Co. maintains significant operations in 30 countries across all five continents. Co. is engaged in hospital and railway construction, transport infrastructure concessions, oil and gas, energy, solids handling and fire protection systems and international contracts. Co.'s operations are organized along four divisions: OHL Concesiones, OHL Construccion, OHL Industrial y OHL Desarrollos. Co. is also engaged in real state project developments of mixed use managed by the international hotel chains.
Repsol is an oil and gas company. Co. is engaged in all the activities relating to the oil and gas industry, including exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas, transportation of oil products, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas, refining, the production of a wide range of oil products and the retailing of oil products, oil derivatives, petrochemicals, LPG and natural gas, as well as the generation, transportation, distribution and supply of electricity. Co. operates in more than 40 countries. Co.'s operations are divided into four segments: Upstream, Downstream, LNG and Gas Natural Fenosa.
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