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GRIFOLS: 4Q’19 RESULTS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

4Q'19 vs. 4Q'18 Results
Sales: € 1.36 Bn (+11.2% vs. +9.3% BS(e) and +9.5% consensus);
EBITDA: € 367.8 M (+29.8% vs. +28.5% BS(e) and +26.9% consensus);
EBIT: € 289.35 M (+30.9% vs. +31.1% BS(e) and +35.6% consensus);
Net Profit: € 201.75 M (+57.2% vs. +51.2% BS(e) and +51.0% consensus);
FY2019 vs. FY2018 Results
Sales: € 5.098 Bn (+13.6% vs. +13.1% BS(e) and +13.2% consensus);
EBITDA: € 1.434 Bn (+17.3% vs. +17.0% BS(e) and +16.6% consensus);
EBIT: € 1.131 Bn (+13.8% vs. +13.9% BS(e )and +14.9% consensus);
Net Profit: € 625.15 M (+4.8% vs. +3.5% BS(e) and +3.4% consensus);

The 4Q’19 results were in line with expectations on the operating level and above in Net Profit. EBITDA grew +29.9% on the quarter to levels slightly above our estimates and those of the consensus (+28.5% BS(e) and +26.9% consensus) thanks to better sales than expected (+11.2% vs. +9.3% BS(e) and +9.5% consensus) and EBITDA margins very much in line with expectations (+27% vs. 27.2% BS(e) and 26.8% consensus). Performance in Net Profit was better than expected (+57.2% vs. +51.2% BS(e) and +51.0% consensus) due mainly to the better performance in financial items, which included a one-off impact of € 50 M linked to its recent debt refinancing (already known) and the lower weight of minority items (€ 23 M vs. € 32 M BS(e)).
NFD also performed well, decreasing by -1.4% on the quarter to € 5.72 Bn (~4.0x NFD/EBITDA), in line with our estimate of € 5.72 Bn, despite a bigger effort in capex on the quarter (€ 144 M vs. € 75 M BS(e)).
In summary, robust 4Q’19 Results where we foresee a positive reception although limited bearing in mind the recent share price performance (+7% vs. IBEX in 1 month). As usual, the company will not hold a conference call on results. BUY, T.P. € 37.30/sh. (+14.49% upside).