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GRIFOLS: 4Q’20 RESULTS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

4Q'20 vs. 4Q'19 Results
Sales: € 1.309 Bn (-3.7% vs. -3.6% expected and -0.7% expected by the market consensus);
EBITDA: € 340.4 M (-7.4% vs. -5.7% expected and -4.6% expected by the market consensus);
EBIT: € 251.65 M (-13.0% vs. -5.0% expected and -20.5% expected by the market consensus);
Net Profit: € 132.8 M (-34.2% vs. -29.2% expected and -30.2% expected by the market consensus);
FY2020 vs. FY2019 Results
Sales: € 5.34 Bn (+4.7% vs. +4.8% expected and +5.6% expected by the market consensus);
EBITDA: € 1.324 Bn (-7.7% vs. -7.2% expected and -6.9% expected by the market consensus);
EBIT: € 996.13 M (-12.0% vs. -9.9% expected and -13.9% expected by the market consensus);
Net Profit: € 618.5 M (-1.1% vs. +0.5% expected and +0.2% expected by the market consensus);
4Q’20 results below the consensus estimate. Debt increase as expected. The quarter’s EBITDA decreased slightly more than expected (-7.4% vs. -6% BS(e)) and -5% consensus) due to lower sales than estimated by the consensus (-3.8% vs. -3.8% BS(e) and -0.7% consensus; +2% LfL) and a somewhat weaker margin performance (-100bps vs. 4Q’19 to 26% vs. 26.5% BS(e) and 26.0% consensus). We highlight the impact from cost saving measures on the year (€-112 M in 2022 vs. €-100 M expected), which did not prevent a stronger impact from Covid-19 on EBITDA’20 than expected (€ 155 M vs. € 100 M expected by GRF). Net Profit fell by -34% to € 133 M (vs. € 143 M BS(e) and € 141 M consensus) due to a greater weight of minority items (€ 29 M vs. € 16 M), which in our view would be due to better performance by Shangai Raas.
Net debt increased to € 5.71 Bn (4.5x NFD/EBITDA vs. 4.1x in 3Q’20) vs. €5.71 Bn BS8e) despite a good working capital performance due to the impact from asset acquisitions from Green Cross (€~400 M BS(e)), Medkkeeper (€~50 M BS(e) and Alkahest (initial payment of € 20 M BS(e)).
In short, weak 4Q’20 Results that evidence a greater impact from Covid-19 than the market was expecting on the quarter, especially in sales (