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GRIFOLS: INVESTOR DAY 2020 LACKING BIG SURPRISES - SHORT TERM CUT AND LONG TERM MAINTAINED (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

Investor Day 2020: No big surprises... BUY.
As expected, the company has confirmed a drop in plasma supply of less than -15% in 2020 and full recovery in 2021 (+30% vs. 2020) as well as an impact of € -100 M on EBITDA’20 from Covid-19 (6.5%; already known). The company expects limited growth in sales over the coming quarters (in line with our estimates and the consensus for 2H’20; +4% BS’20e and +6% consensus and +10.5% as of 1H’20) and pressure on margins due to the increased remuneration for donors, but it expects a quick recovery in 2021 due to the robust demand and the future maintenance of cost savings from 2020e (€~100 M in EBITDA). GRF keeps its debt guidance below 4x NFD/EBITDA (vs. 3.4x 2021 BS(e) and consensus) and confirms that the ASFA could announce its opinion on AMBAR (23% T.P.) in early 2021, and if this goes in the company’s favour it would be a driver. In short, few surprises, and thus we do not expect an impact on the share price.