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GRIFOLS: INVESTOR DAY 2022 - CAPITAL INCREASE RULED OUT (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

Investor Day’22: Capital increase ruled out, but long-term targets pushed back one year. BUY
In its ID, GRF confirmed the recovery on the operating level with a guidance of +5% sales growth in 1H’22 (-1% LfL) and an EBITDA margin of between 20% and 22%, although it pushed the long-term targets of its guidance back by one year, which in any case are in line with our estimates (GRF expected €~2.2 Bn of EBITDA’24 vs. € 2.23 Bn for 2025 BS(e)). The company ruled out a capital increase, but if we were to assume €~2 Bn (19% market cap) with a -15% discount, the impact on the T.P. would be -7% (+38% upside). This would reduce debt (to 5x NFD/EBITDA) and would curb uncertainty (the market is pricing in double the capital increase with a -30% discount) in a stock trading -46% below pre-pandemic levels (-43% vs. its closest peer, CSL).