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IBERIAN DAILY 11 JULY + 2Q’24 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: GRIFOLS, OHLA, REPSOL.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 2Q’24 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

All eyes on France
The lack of relevant macro data and greater calm in France (the left-wing coalition continues to discuss the appointment of a PM candidate) put an end to 3 consecutive session of corrections, with the Ibex returning to 11,000 points. Meanwhile, the S&P500 hit a new record high, exceeding 5,600 points. Thus, in the STOXX 600, all sectors with the exception of Media and Chemicals rose, led by Real Estate and Retail. On the macro side, in Brazil, June’s inflation rose less than expected to 4.2%. In the US, more and more democrats request the withdrawal of J. Biden’s candidacy. In the UK, H. Pill, BoE chief economist, insisted once more that the next step will be cutting rates, leaving the door open to cuts in the last part of the year. In Japan, May’s machinery orders slowed down more than expected.
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open with new gains and with the positive performance of the oil sector and value in general although the US inflation data could push the technology sector even higher. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.06% (the S&P 500 ended +0.61% vs. the European closing bell). Asian stock markets are climbing (China’s CSI 300 +0.94%, Japan’s Nikkei +1.15%).
Today in the US we will learn June’s inflation and weekly jobless claims, in Germany June’s final inflation, in the UK GDP and May’s industrial output and in Brazil May’s retail sales.

COMPANY NEWS

2Q’24 Results previews
Along with our daily report we include 2Q’24 results forecasts with all the previews for the coming days in Spain with our qualitative opinion and the expected impact on the market. Bankinter will release its results next week.

REPSOL. Weak 2Q’24 Trading statement on falling refining margin. OVERWEIGHT
The refining margin dropped significantly on the quarter (to US$ 6.30 d/b from US$ 11.40 d/b in 1Q’24 vs. US$ 8.00 d/b guidance) and Henry Hub gas prices to a lower extent (to US$ 1.90 d/MBtu vs. US$ 2.30 d/MBtu in 1Q’24 and US$ 3.00 d/MBtu guidance). On the contrary, Brent crude prices improved (up to US$ 85.00 d/b from US$ 83.20 d/b in 1Q’24 vs. US$ 80.00 d/b guidance) and output remained quite stable (589kboe/d vs. 590kboe/d 1Q’24, in line with the guidance). For the 2Q’24 Results (24/07), we expect around € 715 M of adjusted Net Profit (-44% vs. 1Q’24 and -14% vs. 2Q’23), which would be below the consensus estimate (around -12%, which would have ben cut in the past month). We expect a negative market reaction.