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IBERIAN DAILY 27 SEPTEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ENERGY SECTOR, GRIFOLS, LAR ESPAÑA, SIEMENS GAMESA.

Europe resists
The European stock markets were a mixed bag yesterday, resisting the sharp widening in debt curves (Germany +8bps and Italy +20bps) following the victory of the right-wing coalition in Italy. Within a divided a Euro STOXX, the best-performing sectors were Technology and Autos, whereas Utilities and Real Estate saw the biggest drops. On the macro side, in Germany, September’s IFO fell more than expected, in line with the deterioration shown by the ZEW index, and hints at a sharp contraction in activity over the coming months. From the ECB, C. Lagarde insisted that the institution will continue to raise rates, warning governments against implementing expansionary fiscal policies. In the United Kingdom, the BoE might make a statement to halt the depreciation of the pound (at historical lows). In the US, the Dallas Fed index fell more than expected in September, nearing its annual lows. In China, August’s industrial profits fell to -2.1% vs. -1.1% previously, with the manufacturing sector recording a -13.4% decline. From the World Bank cut its growth forecast for China in 2022 to 2.8% vs. 4.5% previously (4.5% in 2023), below the growth forecast for Asia ex-China of 5.3%. Meanwhile, the OECD cut its global growth forecast for 2023 to 2.2% vs. 2.8% previously (maintaining 2022 at 3.0%) due to monetary tightening, leaving the Euro zone with growth of 0.3% (Spain 1.5%) and the US at 0.5%.
What we expect for today
The European stock markets would see a slightly bullish opening, trying to recover some stability. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.7% (the S&P 500 ended -0.7 lower on Friday vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US rose (VIX 32.26). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.4% and Japan’s Nikkei +0.4%).
Today we will learn in the Euro zone August’s M3, in the US August’s durable goods orders, the Richmond Fed index for September and August’s new home sales, and in Mexico, August’s trade balance. In debt auctions: Germany (€ 3 Bn in bonds due 2027) and Italy (€ 3.75 Bn in bonds due 2033 and 2024).