IBERIAN DAILY 28 OCTOBER + 3Q’24 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: GRIFOLS.
At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’24 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.
Markets pricing in a Trump victory
The week was marked by rising sovereign debt yields in view of the stronger likelihood of a Trump victory in the US presidential election next week. The IBEX came up short of 12,000 points, falling nearly -1.0% on the week, in line with the rest of the European indices. In the STOXX 600, most sectors posted losses (15/20), led by Insurance and Real Estate vs. the gains in Travel & Leisure and Energy. On the macro side, in the euro zone September’s M3 rose more than expected. In Germany, October’s IFO rose more than expected (for the first time in five months) thanks to the current conditions index and despite the deteriorating expectations component. In Spain, the 3Q’24 unemployment rate fell more than expected to 11.2%, its lowest level since 2008. In the US, durable goods orders fell less than expected in September and the final U. Michigan consumer confidence was raised more than expected. In Japan, the PM’s coalition party was defeated in the parliamentary elections for the first time since 2009, and in 30 days there will be a session to elect a new PM, although the current PM (Ishiba) could remain in office. In China, industrial profits fell in September to -27.1% YoY vs. the previous -17.8%. In US business results, AON and Centene beat expectations and Colgate was in line.
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open with gains of around +0.5%, but with the oil sector dragged down by the falling Brent prices. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.47% (the S&P 500 ended -0.55% lower vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 -0.20%, Japan’s Nikkei +1.82%).
Today in Spain we will learn September’s retail sales. In US business results, Ford and ON Semiconductor, among others, will release their earnings.