IAG: 9M’19 RESULTS (ANÃLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
3Q'19 vs. 3Q'18 Results
Sales: € 7.31 Bn (+2.4% vs. +1.5% expected);
EBIT: € 1.425 Bn (-6.9% vs. -5.4% expected and -6.9% expected by the market consensus);
Net Profit: € 1.008 Bn (-10.6% vs. -0.3% expected);
9M'19 vs. 9M'18 Results
Sales: € 19.399 Bn (+5.7% vs. +5.4% expected);
EBIT: € 2.52 Bn (-9.0% vs. -8.2% expected and -9.1% expected by the market consensus);
Net Profit: € 1.814 Bn (-6.0% vs. 0.0% expected);
Results in line with the consensus in EBIT (slightly worse than our estimates). Net Profit came in slightly below expectations due to higher financials and FX impact (this last factor has no impact on cash). As for the key operating factors, we stress that unit revenues were slightly better than expected (-0.5% vs. -2% BS(e)) and unit fuel costs in line. However, exfuel costs came in below expectations and justify the difference vs. our estimates.
The company maintains its 2019 guidance, which we recall was cut on 26 September, and which aims at hitting EBIT levels of € 3.27 Bn (vs. € 3.25 Bn expected by the consensus). The fuel bill will total some € 100 M, which is lower than expected (-1.6%) due to lower capacity growth (+4% vs. +5% expected up to now). As for 2020, although the company has not given any guidance, we know that it has covered ~70% of its crude oil needs at levels -1.5% lower than in 2019, which provides some visibility.
We do not see relevant surprises in these results, which we believe will not be a driver. The market will pay close attention to the company’s indications at the Capital Market Day to be held on the 8th of November. BUY. Target Price: € 8.00/sh. (upside 32.54%)