IBERDROLA: CMD & ESG 2023-2025 (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
CMD&ESG 2023-2025 mantiene el ritmo inversor, la prudencia financiera y mejora el guidance. COMPRARIBE mantendrá el ritmo inversor en el período (47.000 M euros, con PNM) con el foco más en Redes (57% total) y en EE.UU. que en Renovables (será más selectiva y con mayor peso offshore). Para el período 23-25, a nivel operativo, ha mejorado el guidance en EBITDA (TACC+8/+9% vs +6%/+7% anterior, BS y consenso), en BDI (a TACC +8%/+10% vs +6/+7% anterior, BS y consenso) y compromete un DPA creciente (DPA 2025e entre 0,55 euros/acc.-0,58 euros/acc. vs 0,53 euros/acc.-0,56 euros/acc. anterior; yield 6%). La solidez financiera continuará siendo prioritaria (DFN/EBITDA’25e en 3,4x) por lo que el plan lo financiará con la fuerte generación de flujo de caja, deuda, rotación de activos y alianzas estratégicas. Una vez que incorporemos todas las variables anunciadas (con un incremento promedio en EBITDA c. +7%) estimaríamos un impacto positivo en P.O. c. +9% (respecto al P.O. actual de 11,75 euros/acc.). Reiteramos a IBE como la utility integrada doméstica preferida y mantenemos COMPRAR.
Iberdrola is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates in four segments: network business, which includes all the energy transmission and distribution activities, and other regulated activity originated in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and Brazil; deregulated business, which includes electricity generation and sales businesses as well as gas trading and storage businesses carried on by Co. in Spain, Portugal, the U.K. and North America; renewable business, with activities related to renewable energies in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and the rest of the world; and other businesses, including the engineering and construction businesses and the non-power businesses.
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