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IBERIAN DAILY 09 JANUARY (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: IBERDROLA, SACYR, UNICAJA.

Slight losses with the market still affected by rising yields and awaiting employment data
European stock markets, which opened with slight gains, ended up doing a 180 after Wall Street opened, awaiting tomorrow’s US employment data and with all eyes on debt yields. The first few days of the year continue to be shaky: the debate continues on at what point, with demanding stock market levels, high interest rates but a still-favourable macro backdrop, there could be a possible big correction, and whether US tech could once again be a positive surprise in 2025. In the STOXX 600, on the positive side we highlight Pharma (due to NovoNordisk’s rally thanks to analyst recommendation upgrades and announcements in the pipeline), with the biggest drops coming in Real Estate, Retail, Technology, Leisure and Energy (above -1%). On the macro side, in the euro zone December’s economic confidence index fell more than expected. In Germany, retail sales and factory orders contracted in November much more than expected. In the US, December’s ADP private employment survey also came in below expectations, although weekly jobless claims once again beat expectations. Separately, the Fed’s December meeting minutes showed more worry regarding inflation in view of the recent rises and that Trump’s policies could delay the process of reaching 2.0%. In China, December’s inflation ended 2024 as expected at 0.1% YoY (vs. previous 0.2%), whereas production prices slowed their drop more than expected. In Japan, salary gains rose more than expected in November (to a 32-year high) but contracted slightly in real terms.
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open with drops of -0.1%. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.18% (the S&P 500 ended unchanged vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 -0.20% and Japan’s Nikkei -0.89%).
Today in Germany we will learn November’s industrial output, in the euro zone and Brazil November’s retail sales and in Mexico December’s inflation.