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The Ibex falls below 7,000
The European stock markets fell as the session progressed, with the Ibex leading losses with a -2.2% drop, dragged down by Banks and currency depreciation in emerging markets. Within the Euro STOXX, all sectors except for Basic Resources and Utilities posted losses, with Banks and Insurance seeing the biggest drops. On the macro side, in Spain, the decline in inflation moderated, as expected, to -0.5% YoY in August from -0.6% previously, whereas in Germany, inflation climbed to 0.1% YoY from -0.1% previously. Separately, the minister of Economy Nadia Calviño expects the GDP to increase by 10% in 3Q’20, which stands below previous estimates and forecasts from other institutions. In Italy, the 2Q’20 GDP figure was lowered to 17.7% YoY. From the ECB, I. Schnabel claimed that as of today there is no reason to further stimulate the economy. From the Fed, R. Clarida backed the changes announced by Powell and insisted that the control of the slope is difficult to implement and has few advantages, although it remains an option going forward. In Japan, the unemployment rate climbed less than expected in July whereas August’s manufacturing PMI increased slightly to 47.2 from 46.6 previously. In China, the Caixin manufacturing PMI climbed more than expected in August to 53.1.
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open once again with gains of +0.5%, but lacking a clear direction..
Currently, S&P futures are up +0.15% (the S&P 500 ended largely flat vs. its price at the closing bell in Europe). Volatility in the US increased (VIX 26.41%). Asian markets are rising (Japan +0.09% and Hong Kong +0.26%).
Today we will learn in the Euro zone July’s unemployment rate and August’s final inflation data and manufacturing PMI, in Spain and Italy, August’s manufacturing PMI, in the US August’s ISM manufacturing index, in Brazil the 2Q’20 GDP data and the manufacturing PMI, and in Mexico the manufacturing PMI. In debt auctions: Belgium (€ 1.89 Bn in 3M and 6M T-bills) and Germany (€ 500 M in inflation-linked bonds due 2026 and 2046).
IBERIAN DAILY 01 SEPTEMBER (ANÃLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
MARKETS YESTERDAY AND TODAYThe Ibex falls below 7,000
The European stock markets fell as the session progressed, with the Ibex leading losses with a -2.2% drop, dragged down by Banks and currency depreciation in emerging markets. Within the Euro STOXX, all sectors except for Basic Resources and Utilities posted losses, with Banks and Insurance seeing the biggest drops. On the macro side, in Spain, the decline in inflation moderated, as expected, to -0.5% YoY in August from -0.6% previously, whereas in Germany, inflation climbed to 0.1% YoY from -0.1% previously. Separately, the minister of Economy Nadia Calviño expects the GDP to increase by 10% in 3Q’20, which stands below previous estimates and forecasts from other institutions. In Italy, the 2Q’20 GDP figure was lowered to 17.7% YoY. From the ECB, I. Schnabel claimed that as of today there is no reason to further stimulate the economy. From the Fed, R. Clarida backed the changes announced by Powell and insisted that the control of the slope is difficult to implement and has few advantages, although it remains an option going forward. In Japan, the unemployment rate climbed less than expected in July whereas August’s manufacturing PMI increased slightly to 47.2 from 46.6 previously. In China, the Caixin manufacturing PMI climbed more than expected in August to 53.1.
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open once again with gains of +0.5%, but lacking a clear direction..
Currently, S&P futures are up +0.15% (the S&P 500 ended largely flat vs. its price at the closing bell in Europe). Volatility in the US increased (VIX 26.41%). Asian markets are rising (Japan +0.09% and Hong Kong +0.26%).
Today we will learn in the Euro zone July’s unemployment rate and August’s final inflation data and manufacturing PMI, in Spain and Italy, August’s manufacturing PMI, in the US August’s ISM manufacturing index, in Brazil the 2Q’20 GDP data and the manufacturing PMI, and in Mexico the manufacturing PMI. In debt auctions: Belgium (€ 1.89 Bn in 3M and 6M T-bills) and Germany (€ 500 M in inflation-linked bonds due 2026 and 2046).
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Sabadell
Research Department
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