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More doubts than certitudes in the medium-term
It was a session of stability for global stock markets that ended in negative territory following the poor US data amid concerns about the rise in energy prices and its impact on inflation. Thus, in the Euro STOXX, Energy (with the rally of Brent) and Banks led gains, whereas Basic Resources and Retail led losses. On the macro side, in the euro zone March’s final manufacturing PMI improved vs. the preliminary data unexpectedly due to the surprises in the peripheral segment. In any event, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.3 vs. 48.5 previously, which continues to show the difficulties of factories in view of higher costs, a more restrictive monetary policy, the reduction of stockpiles and the lower consumer confidence. From the ECB, R. Holzmann expects a limited impact on inflation from the OPEC+cut. In the US, March’s manufacturing ISM dropped more than expected to May’20 lows. From the Fed, J. Bullard considers that the production cut will complicate the control of inflation. On the geopolitical front, Russia will reinforce its northwestern territory in view of Finland’s accession to NATO whereas Sweden is still in a wait-and-see mode. On another note, the IMF once again demanded adjustments to reduce inflationary tensions coordinated with the monetary policy.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of as much as 0.50%, underpinned by expectations of controlling prices and despite the OPEC+ decision. Currently, S&P futures are flat, -0.1% (the S&P 500 ended +0.56% higher vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US moderated (VIX 18.55). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.88% and Japan’s Nikkei +0.33%).
Today in Spain we will learn March’s unemployment and in the US February’s factory orders and final durable goods orders.
IBERIAN DAILY 04 APRIL (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: N/A.More doubts than certitudes in the medium-term
It was a session of stability for global stock markets that ended in negative territory following the poor US data amid concerns about the rise in energy prices and its impact on inflation. Thus, in the Euro STOXX, Energy (with the rally of Brent) and Banks led gains, whereas Basic Resources and Retail led losses. On the macro side, in the euro zone March’s final manufacturing PMI improved vs. the preliminary data unexpectedly due to the surprises in the peripheral segment. In any event, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.3 vs. 48.5 previously, which continues to show the difficulties of factories in view of higher costs, a more restrictive monetary policy, the reduction of stockpiles and the lower consumer confidence. From the ECB, R. Holzmann expects a limited impact on inflation from the OPEC+cut. In the US, March’s manufacturing ISM dropped more than expected to May’20 lows. From the Fed, J. Bullard considers that the production cut will complicate the control of inflation. On the geopolitical front, Russia will reinforce its northwestern territory in view of Finland’s accession to NATO whereas Sweden is still in a wait-and-see mode. On another note, the IMF once again demanded adjustments to reduce inflationary tensions coordinated with the monetary policy.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of as much as 0.50%, underpinned by expectations of controlling prices and despite the OPEC+ decision. Currently, S&P futures are flat, -0.1% (the S&P 500 ended +0.56% higher vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US moderated (VIX 18.55). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.88% and Japan’s Nikkei +0.33%).
Today in Spain we will learn March’s unemployment and in the US February’s factory orders and final durable goods orders.
Provider
Sabadell
Research Department
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