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Stock markets rise over the first week of 2023
The falling salary pressures along with strong job generation in the US suggesting a growth scenario that is not overly negative and lower inflationary pressures ended up driving European stock markets. The Euro STOXX ended the week with gains of around +4%, with the best sectors being Consumer Goods and Banks, whereas Energy (due to the falling oil prices) and Financial Services fell the most. On the macro side, in Germany November’s retail sales contracted much more than expected. In the euro zone December’s final inflation fell to 9.2% (more than expected), although the core figure rose to 5.2%, showing second-round price pressure. Separately, December’s economic climate index improved more than expected, with inflation expectations falling from very high levels. In the US, December’s ADP private employment survey showed job creation near double what was expected, November’s trade balance saw the deficit shrinking more than expected and weekly jobless claims fell sharply. Non-farm employment data for December also beat expectations after 223,000 new jobs were created, and the unemployment rate continued to fall to 3.5%, although salary gains fell unexpectedly. Separately, November’s factory orders contracted more than expected and December’s non-manufacturing ISM fell much more than expected to below 50, now in an area consistent with falling activity levels. The price subindex also fell, although it remains high. In Brazil, Bolsonaro’s supporters occupied Congress and the Supreme Court, although the police subsequently restored control.
What we expect for today
The European stock markets would open with gains, still driven by the positive US macro data. We do not expect an impact from the events in Brazil. The Spanish companies in our coverage universe with the greater exposure to the country are Santander, Telefónica, Iberdrola, Mapfre, Arcelor and CIE Automotive. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.35% (the S&P 500 ended up +0.45% vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US fell (VIX 21.13). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.9% and Japan’s Nikkei closed).
Today we will learn in Germany November’s industrial output, and in the Euro zone January’s Sentix index and November’s unemployment rate.
IBERIAN DAILY 09 JANUARY (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: ELECTRICITY SECTOR.Stock markets rise over the first week of 2023
The falling salary pressures along with strong job generation in the US suggesting a growth scenario that is not overly negative and lower inflationary pressures ended up driving European stock markets. The Euro STOXX ended the week with gains of around +4%, with the best sectors being Consumer Goods and Banks, whereas Energy (due to the falling oil prices) and Financial Services fell the most. On the macro side, in Germany November’s retail sales contracted much more than expected. In the euro zone December’s final inflation fell to 9.2% (more than expected), although the core figure rose to 5.2%, showing second-round price pressure. Separately, December’s economic climate index improved more than expected, with inflation expectations falling from very high levels. In the US, December’s ADP private employment survey showed job creation near double what was expected, November’s trade balance saw the deficit shrinking more than expected and weekly jobless claims fell sharply. Non-farm employment data for December also beat expectations after 223,000 new jobs were created, and the unemployment rate continued to fall to 3.5%, although salary gains fell unexpectedly. Separately, November’s factory orders contracted more than expected and December’s non-manufacturing ISM fell much more than expected to below 50, now in an area consistent with falling activity levels. The price subindex also fell, although it remains high. In Brazil, Bolsonaro’s supporters occupied Congress and the Supreme Court, although the police subsequently restored control.
What we expect for today
The European stock markets would open with gains, still driven by the positive US macro data. We do not expect an impact from the events in Brazil. The Spanish companies in our coverage universe with the greater exposure to the country are Santander, Telefónica, Iberdrola, Mapfre, Arcelor and CIE Automotive. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.35% (the S&P 500 ended up +0.45% vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US fell (VIX 21.13). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.9% and Japan’s Nikkei closed).
Today we will learn in Germany November’s industrial output, and in the Euro zone January’s Sentix index and November’s unemployment rate.
Provider
Sabadell
Research Department
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