IBERIAN DAILY 10 OCTOBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: N/A.
IBEX clings to 9,100 points
Global stock markets were hit by the heightened geopolitical risk after Israel’s response to the attacks by Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Historically, greater uncertainty in the Middle East has come with losses, led by cyclical stocks, and increases in energy raw material prices. In this regard, the best-performing sectors (with gains) in the STOXX 600 were Energy (Brent prices rose around +4%) and defensive stocks like Food, whereas Travel & Leisure and Retail ended with the biggest losses. On the macro side, in Germany August’s industrial output contracted slightly more than expected. In the euro zone, October’s SENTIX investor confidence index fell slightly less than expected, although still in negative territory. From the ECB, L. de Guindos called for caution from European banks in view of the “mirage” of improved profitability over the past few quarters. In the US, Dallas Fed member Logan warned that the recent tightening in long-term debt curves could prevent new rate hikes. In Mexico, September’s inflation fell in line with expectations to 4.5%.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would rally with gains of around +1.0%, underpinned by the stabilisation of debt curves and crude oil prices. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.10% (the S&P 500 ended +0.74% higher vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US rose (VIX 17.70). Asian stock markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 -0.47%, Japan’s Nikkei +2.44%).
Today there are no noteworthy macro releases.