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IBERIAN DAILY 12 MARCH (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: CHANGES IBEX.

MARKETS YESTERDAY AND TODAY

Gains continue with the aid of the ECB
The President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, did not disappoint in her speech yesterday, where she announced an increase in debt purchases linked to the PEPP in order to avoid a tightening of monetary conditions that could jeopardise recovery, which helped lower sovereign debt yields and boost risk assets. Thus, the stock markets of the main euro zone countries closed in positive numbers, with the IBEX close to +0.7%. In the Euro STOXX, almost all the sectors closed with gains, with Travel & Leisure and Technology the best performers compared to Banks, Autos and Food, which fell the most. On the macro side, in Spain 20,000 businesses closed between Jan-Feb’21 and 50,000 in total since the pandemic began. Thus, the Govt. announced an € 11 Bn plan to aid companies (~1% of GDP), including direct aid. In the US weekly jobless claims fell to a 4-month low. In Brazil, February’s inflation rose more than expected to 5.2% YoY vs. the previous 4.56%. In China, the M2 and loans grew more than expected in February. As for vaccines, 6 European countries have temporarily halted the use of AstraZeneca’s vaccine, while the initial studies show high efficacy of Novavax’s vaccine against the British strain, but close to 50% against the South African strain.
What we expect for today
The stock markets would see a flat opening with some profit-taking and a mixed performance of value and growth stocks. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.05% (the S&P 500 was down -0.34% vs. its price at the closing bell in Europe). Volatility in the US fell (VIX 21.91). Asian markets are rising (CSI 300 +0.1%, Japan +1.70%).
Today we will learn in the Euro zone and the United Kingdom January’s industrial output, in Spain February’s core inflation, in the US the University of Michigan’s sentiment data for March and in Mexico February’s job creation and January’s industrial output.
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