IBERIAN DAILY 22 MARCH (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: n.a.
MARKETS YESTERDAY AND TODAY
Profit taking to end the week
European stock markets corrected on Friday more out of fear of a fourth wave of Covid-19, although they ended the week with slight gains after the more dovish message from the Fed. Within the Euro STOXX, the leaders over the past 5 sessions were once again value sectors, although the advantage was not as clear as in previous weeks. With this in mind, Autos, followed by Personal Consumer Goods led the gains on the week, whereas Energy (due to the sharp drop in oil after supply increases in Iran and the US) and Retail ended with the biggest losses. On the macro side, In Spain, second-hand home sales fell -14.5% in 2020, with number falling in all Autonomous Communities. In the US, the Fed refused to extend the relaxed measures implemented in the pandemic on the banks’ capital levels. Meanwhile, the meeting between the US and China saw lower confrontation although no specific progress was made. In Turkey, the president Erdogan forced the resignation of the Central Bank’s president N. Agbal, which led the Turkish Lira to depreciate by as much as -15%, returning to Nov’20 levels. In China, the monetary authorities decided to keep the 1 & 5Y loan rates unchanged at 3.85% and 4.65%, as expected.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight losses, with value performing worse in view of the falling US bond yield. We will pay close attention to the impact from the change in the governor of the Central Turkish Bank (impact on BBVA, 15% of its T.P. stems from the country). In ratings, in the end S&P kept Spain’s rating at A- but downgraded its outlook to negative and warning of a possible downgrade if the labour reform is revoked. Currently, S&P futures are practically flat (the S&P 500 was down -0.35% vs. its price at the closing bell in Europe). Volatility in the US fell (VIX 20.95). Asian markets are trading with mixed results (CSI 300 +0.8%, Japan -2.1%).
Today in the US we will learn February’s Chicago Fed index and J. Powell will give a speech.