IBERIAN DAILY 26 SEPTEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: N/A.
September’s downward trend continues
The session continued the month’s downward trend on the worries regarding the Chinese real estate sector and the rising interest rates. The Euro STOXX was in negative numbers, with the only sectors escaping punishment being Construction and Pharma, whereas Travel & Leisure and Consumer Goods fell the most. On the macro side, in Germany September’s IFO fell less than expected, practically repeating last month’s figures, but the low levels continue to suggest a contraction of the German economy. From the ECB, both Lagarde and Schnabel made it clear that activity levels in the euro zone fell in Q3, but they do not expect a deep contraction (though they do expect persistent inflation). Italy raised its 2024 deficit target to -4.1/-4.3% from -3.7% previously and to -4.5% expected for 2023, and approved a new energy aid package worth € 1.3 Bn. In the US, August’s Chicago Fed national activity index fell again, and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index fell more than expected. In Japan, PM Kishida was concerned about the weakness of the yen and the rising energy and import prices. On the geopolitical side, Russia lifted the suspension on low-quality diesel and marine fuel exports.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight drops, with growth performing worse than value. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.30% (the S&P 500 ended up +0.20% vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US fell (VIX 12.90). Asian stock markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 -0.46%, Japan’s Nikkei -0.90%).
Today in the US we will learn July’s new home sales and September’s Conference Board consumer confidence. In debt auctions: Italy (€ 4.75 Bn in bonds due 2025 and I/L due 2029 and 2041).