ALMIRALL: APPEALING PIPELINE & ROOM FOR M&A (ANÃLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
Appealing pipeline and M&A capacity. We reiterate BUY.ALM has a positive growth profile in the short and medium term thanks to the ramp-up of its psoriasis and acne businesses in Europe and the US, respectively, but also in the long term thanks to the performance of the pipeline (23% of our T.P.). We cut our estimates by -3.6% in EBITDA and by -6.7% in Net Profit for 2019-21 to show lower milestones in A. Zéneca (4% of our T.P.), setting a new T.P. of € 20.00/sh. (+33% upside; vs. range of € 19-21/sh. previously). Following the latest drops (-7% vs. Ibex in the past 3 months due to the accelerated bookbuild by its largest shareholder of 6.3% of the share capital in November 2019), the stock is trading at 9.3x EV/EBITDA, meaning a discount of -22% vs. peers that we believe will narrow on better growth expectations (CAGR’19-22 of +8.6% in EBITDA vs. +6% sector).
Almirall is engaged in the acquisition, manufacture, storage, sale and mediation in the sale of pharmaceutical specialties and products and all manner of raw materials used to prepare pharmaceutical specialties and products. Also, Co. acquires, manufactures, storages, sales and mediates in the sale of cosmetics, chemical, biotechnological and diagnostic products for human, veterinary, agrochemical and food-industry use, as well as all manner of utensils, complements and accessories for the chemical, pharmaceutical and clinical industries. In addition, Co. is engaged in the acquisition, sale, lease, subdivision and development of land lots, land and properties of all kinds.
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