ALMIRALL: FY2019 RESULTS (ANÃLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
4Q'19 vs. 4Q'18 Results:Sales: € 215.4 M (0.0% vs. -2.1% BS(e) and -1.7% consensus);
EBITDA: € 67.7 M (+12.8% vs. +14.2% BS(e) and +20.7% consensus);
EBIT: € 35.8 M (+11.9% vs. +10.9% BS(e) and +23.4% consensus);
Net Profit: € 8.6 M (€ -15.5 M in FY2018 vs. € 18.4 M BS(e) and € 30.2 M consensus);
FY2019 vs. FY2018 Results:
Sales: € 853.1 M (+12.7% vs. +12.1% BS(e) and +12.2% consensus);
EBITDA: € 304.2 M (+45.2% vs. +45.6% BS(e) and +47.4% consensus);
EBIT: € 174.8 M (+46.5% vs. +46.3% BS(e) and +49.6% consensus);
Net Profit: € 105.9 M (+36.3% vs. +48.9% BS(e) and +64.1% consensus);
The FY2019 results were in line on the operating level, but the 2020e guidance came in below expectations. FY2019 EBITDA was in the middle part of its guidance at the operating level (EBITDA € 304 M vs. € 305 M BS(e) and € 309 M consensus) and better than expected in Net Profit (€ 106 M vs. € 127 M consensus), due mainly to the negative impact from FX on the quarter (€ -13.5 M). Excluding one-offs, Net Profit would have come in +7% above the consensus figures. Cash performance was solid, with net debt coming in below expectations (€ 376 M vs. € 402 M BS(e); ~1.2x NFD/EBITDA excl. pension plans).
On the negative side, the 2020e guidance (EBITDA between € 260 M and € 280 M with low/mid-single-digit growth in sales) was well below our estimates and the consensus (EBITDA € 310 M BS(e) and € 304.8 M consensus; -13% below average). Assuming this guidance in recurrence would have an impact of -10% on our T.P., which would be reduced to € 18.00/sh. (+42% upside). There were no surprises in the dividend (€ 0.203/sh.; +2.5% vs. 2018; € 0.208/sh. consensus), which remained stable.
We expect a negative reception. At 10:00 (CET) there will be a conference call in which we expect the company to provide more details on how the products in ramp-up phase are progressing, as well as the hypotheses assumed in the 2020e guidance. BUY. T.P. € 20.00/sh. (upside +57.85%).
Almirall is engaged in the acquisition, manufacture, storage, sale and mediation in the sale of pharmaceutical specialties and products and all manner of raw materials used to prepare pharmaceutical specialties and products. Also, Co. acquires, manufactures, storages, sales and mediates in the sale of cosmetics, chemical, biotechnological and diagnostic products for human, veterinary, agrochemical and food-industry use, as well as all manner of utensils, complements and accessories for the chemical, pharmaceutical and clinical industries. In addition, Co. is engaged in the acquisition, sale, lease, subdivision and development of land lots, land and properties of all kinds.
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