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Higher geopolitical risk in the Middle East
European stock markets saw new corrections due to the higher risk aversion generated by Iran’s missile attack on Israel and the punishment to financial stocks due to the lower interest rate pattern expected by the market. Thus, in the STOXX 600, Energy (thanks to the rally of Brent crude due to the political instability) and Real Estate were the best-performing sectors whereas Banks and Consumer Goods dropped >-2.0%. On the macro side, in the euro zone, September’s final manufacturing PMI improved vs. the preliminary data, rising significantly in France and Spain and with Germany showing lower deterioration. September’s inflation was in line with expectations, standing below the ECB’s target for the first time since July’21 although the core data only moderated one tenth to 2.7%. In the US, September’s manufacturing ISM remained at 47.2 (worse). August’s construction expenses slowed down unexpectedly and job vacancies (JOLTS) rose unexpectedly. On another note, the republican vice-president candidate J.D. Vance is seen as the winner of the debate. In Japan, the new PM Ishiban admitted he will keep the economic policies from his predecessor Kishida.
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open with slight gains of +0.2% against a complex geopolitical backdrop, where Israel has promised retaliation against the attack from Iran and Brent continues to rally. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.30% (the S&P 500 ended +0.06% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are sliding (China’s CSI closed and Japan’s Nikkei -1.88%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn the 2Q’24 unemployment rate, in Brazil August’s industrial output and in the US September’s (ADP) private employment survey.
IBERIAN DAILY 02 OCTOBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: NATURGY.Higher geopolitical risk in the Middle East
European stock markets saw new corrections due to the higher risk aversion generated by Iran’s missile attack on Israel and the punishment to financial stocks due to the lower interest rate pattern expected by the market. Thus, in the STOXX 600, Energy (thanks to the rally of Brent crude due to the political instability) and Real Estate were the best-performing sectors whereas Banks and Consumer Goods dropped >-2.0%. On the macro side, in the euro zone, September’s final manufacturing PMI improved vs. the preliminary data, rising significantly in France and Spain and with Germany showing lower deterioration. September’s inflation was in line with expectations, standing below the ECB’s target for the first time since July’21 although the core data only moderated one tenth to 2.7%. In the US, September’s manufacturing ISM remained at 47.2 (worse). August’s construction expenses slowed down unexpectedly and job vacancies (JOLTS) rose unexpectedly. On another note, the republican vice-president candidate J.D. Vance is seen as the winner of the debate. In Japan, the new PM Ishiban admitted he will keep the economic policies from his predecessor Kishida.
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open with slight gains of +0.2% against a complex geopolitical backdrop, where Israel has promised retaliation against the attack from Iran and Brent continues to rally. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.30% (the S&P 500 ended +0.06% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are sliding (China’s CSI closed and Japan’s Nikkei -1.88%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn the 2Q’24 unemployment rate, in Brazil August’s industrial output and in the US September’s (ADP) private employment survey.
Underlying
Naturgy (NTGY SM)
Provider
Sabadell
Research Department
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