NH HOTELES: FY2019 RESULTS (ANÃLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
4Q'19 vs. 4Q'18 Results:
Sales: € 460.9 M (+7.2% vs. +2.8% BS(e) and +3.9% consensus);
EBITDA: € 150.9 M (+99.1% vs. +87.2% BS(e) and +85.8% consensus);
Net Profit: € 37.3 M (+32.3% vs. -15.6% BS(e) and -19.5% consensus);
FY2019 vs. FY2018 Results:
Sales: € 1.718 Bn (+6.1% vs. +4.9% BS(e) and +5.2% consensus);
EBITDA: € 551.4 M (+5.9% vs. +4.2% BS(e) and +3.9% consensus);
Net Profit: € 103.2 M (+20.1% vs. +4.4% BS(e) and +3.1% consensus);
Results came in above expectations on the operating level thanks to revenues. Specifically, we stress the improvement in Revpar in the 4Q’19 (+5.4% vs. +3% in the 3Q’19) thanks to the positive performance of its businesses in Europe (Benelux +6.7% vs. +1.6% in 3Q’19; Italy +6.8% vs. +4.8% in 3Q’19; Central Europe +5% vs. -5.9% in 3Q’19). Furthermore, the bottom line of the P&L statement has benefited from a very low tax rate in the 4Q’19 (~10%), which justifies the larger difference in Net Profit.
EBITDA ex IFRS came in above expectations at € 294 M vs. NH’s € 285 M target (in line with the consensus and BS(e)), above the guidelines foreseen. NHH has also beaten its Net Profit target (ex IFRS) of € 100 M, having reached € 113 M in 2019.
The company has not given any guidance or outlook for 2020. We assume it will announce further details at today’s conference call at 12:00 (CET). We believe that NH already prices in an uncertain environment due to Covid-19; -11% in 2 sessions; -8% vs. IBEX, and thus even though the results add confidence, the absence of guidance reduces visibility. BUY, T.P. € 6.30/sh. (+34.62% upside).