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IBERIAN DAILY 24 MARCH (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: OHLA.


Week of slight gains with cyclicals suffering
Despite the poor performance at the end of the week, stock markets managed to end with slight gains, except the DAX, which ended in the red. In the STOXX 600, the biggest gains were in Energy, Retail and Utilities, whereas Chemicals, Basic Materials and Autos suffered the biggest losses. On the macro side, in Spain, overnight stays confirmed the bearish trend (-0.9% YoY in February vs. 2.5% previously), while prices slowed (4.2% YoY vs. 6.1% in January). In France, March’s consumer confidence deteriorated unexpectedly. In Germany, the Senate approved the constitutional reform to lift the debt brake. In the US, according to Bloomberg, the Trump Administration could apply reciprocal tariffs on certain products/countries and not generally, as was initially announced. In Japan, March’s manufacturing and services PMIs fell more than expected to 48.3 and 49.5, respectively. In Turkey, the mayor of Istanbul (and main opposition to Erdogan), E. Imamoglu, was formally arrested.
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open with gains of up to +0.5%, with defensive stocks and bond proxies faring worse in view of the hike in sovereign debt yields. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.6% (the S&P 500 ended up +0.2% vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 -0.1% and Japan’s Nikkei -0.1%).
Today in the euro zone and US we will learn March’s manufacturing and services PMIs and in Mexico January’s IGAE activity index.