EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 17 MARCH (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: BANKING SECTOR, SACYR.

The ECB maintains the roadmap
The European stock markets ended with gains despite the ECB’s rate hikes, which were offset with Lagarde’s commitment to provide liquidity and the announcement that up to 11 US banks joined forces to deposit US$ 30 Bn to “save” the First Republic Bank. Thus, it was a highly volatile session for the Euro STOXX, which ended with gains led by Consumer Goods and Retails, whereas Real Estate and Energy were the only sectors that closed in the red. On the macro side, in the Euro zone, the ECB kept the benchmark rate at 3.50% (+50bps; without unanimity). The new growth forecasts were raised to 1.0% in 2023 (+0.5pp vs. previously) and lowered for 2024 and 2025 to 1.6% in both years (-0.3pp and -0.2pp vs. previously), admitting that the turmoil over the banking system could change them. As for inflation, core inflation is now expected to be higher in 2023, 4.6% (+0.4pp), but it would stand at 2.5% in 2024 (-0.3pp) and 2.2% in 2025 (-0.2pp). In the US, weekly jobless claims slowed more than expected, whereas housing starts and building permit climbed far above expectations in February. Lastly, the Philadelphia Fed index improved somewhat less than expected in March. Lastly, yesterday, it was reported that US banks have increased their use of the Fed’s discount window by US$ 150 Bn in the last week.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of around +0.4%. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.03% (the S&P 500 ended +0.16% higher vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US fell (VIX 22.99). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.34% and Japan’s Nikkei +1.2%).
Today we will learn in the Euro zone February’s final inflation and in the US February’s industrial output.