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SACYR: FY2020 RESULTS AND T.P. INCREASE (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

4Q'20 vs. 4Q'19 Results
Sales: € 1.345 Bn (+18.3% vs. +6.7% BS(e));
EBITDA: € 197.0 M (+4.8% vs. -0.5% BS(e));
Net Profit: € -11.0 M (€ -419.73 M in FY2019 vs. € 16.0 M BS(e));
FY2020 vs. FY2019 Results
Sales: € 4.548 Bn (+9.1% vs. +5.9% BS(e));
EBITDA: € 724.0 M (+6.5% vs. +5.0% BS(e));
Net Profit: € 36.0 M (€ -297.73 M in FY2019 vs. € 63.0 M BS(e));

The company has released FY2020 results slightly above our expectations, except in Net Profit. The numbers show growth in revenues and EBITDA even though asset sales were recorded over this period (Guadalmina highway in Spain and other concessional assets in Portugal), which distort the comparison to last year’s same period.
By divisions: Concessions (50% EBITDA) grew +5%, and Engineering & Infras (38% EBITDA; including SPV) grew +12%, while Valoriza (12% EBITDA) dropped -3%.
Net Profit decreased in 4Q standalone due to the impact from the provisions for Panama, Repsol, etc.
NFD at the end of the year reached € 836 M (vs. € 840 M BS(e)) following the heavy divestitures in 2020, mainly in concessions, which totaled € 315 M. The recourse debt ratio (recourse ND/recourse EBITDA + Distributions and Dividends) is 3.1x vs. 4.4x in 2019.
The share price has soared +94% from 2020 lows although we believe it still has upside and we would take advantage of these results to raise our T.P. by +25% up to € 2.53/sh. (+22% upside, see details further down in this report) after revising our estimates base don the positive performance of results, the starting operation of the new concessions over the coming years and the model roll-over. We reiterate our BUY recommendation.