SOLARIA: WITH MARGIN FOR IMPROVEMENT (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
The delays of the strategic plan are already priced in. We initiate coverage with a € 21.70/sh. T.P., yielding +42.7% upside and BUY recommendation.
SLR is a renewable player and developer, vertically integrated and with a single technology (solar PV), with 807 MW in operation (1Q’21) and a target of 6,200 MW through 2025 (and 18,000 MW through 2030). Its strategy of being present in the phases with higher value added and its in-house profile result in a profitable growth story (~12% IRR, in a normal farm) in an industry with positive prospects. Our estimates assume 100% of SLR’s targets in 2027, meaning 63% of the delivery of SLR’s plan through 2025. With this in mind, we estimate a +24% CAGR’20-30 in EBITDA, with the company no longer burning cash in 2028 BS(e) after the completion of the expansion plan. Our T.P. assume implicit ratios of 22.9x EV/EBTIDA’22 and 36x P/E (vs. 16.6x and 42.4x for its peers and vs. 18.3x and 23.8x currently).