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IBERIAN DAILY 26 JANUARY + 4Q’23 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: VISCOFAN.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with previews for the 4Q’23 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

No surprises from the ECB meeting
There was little movement on the stock markets in a session marked by the ECB, which followed the expected script, and the start of the results calendar in Europe. Thus, in the STOXX 600 Technology and Chemicals led gains vs. Automobiles and Utilities that were the worst performers. On the macro side, the ECB kept the reference interest rate unchanged at the third consecutive meeting, as expected. Although the statement once again insisted on leaving rates at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary, the data-dependent stance (awaiting salary gains in 1Q’24) and the lack of news in Lagarde’s speech ended up leading to a drop in debt curves. In Germany, January’s IFO fell more than expected for the second consecutive month to the lowest level since the summer of 2020. In the US, the first reading of the 4Q’23 GDP provided a positive surprise after rising to 3.3% (vs. 2.0% expected), fuelled by consumption. December’s durable goods orders fell more than expected and December’s new home sales and initial jobless claims climbed more than expected. In Japan, Tokyo’s inflation fell more than expected in January and has cooled the possibility of the BoJ raising rates. In the January meeting minutes the members of the BoJ would be discussing the strength of the rise in prices and when will be the right time to raise interest rates. In US business results, American Airlines and Southwest Airlines beat expectations, Visa was in line and T-Mobile and Intel came in below expectations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would see a bearish opening, partially offsetting the gains seen yesterday and significantly marked by the earnings calendar. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.43% (the S&P 500 ended +0.10% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian stock markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 -0.45%, Japan’s Nikkei -1.34%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn December’s M3, in Spain the 4Q’23 unemployment rate and in the US December’s personal outlays.