Report
SMI
Lane Dusserre

No buy signal—the short-term trend (days/weeks) for EEM remains negative.

Short-Term (days/weeks) : EEM still negative
EEM fell sharply last week following a short-term sell signal ; Daily OB/OS
momentum turned negative.
At the close on Friday, EEM was testing trend support from the fall 2022 low ;
Daily OB/OS momentum was very modestly oversold.
No buy signal—the short-term trend (days/weeks) for EEM remains negative.
US analogs of the DJIA/NYSE ITI (peaks in the 70% range) suggest weakness to
mid-August; this should weigh on EEM.
See Daily OB/OS Charts, attached, page 9 and analog charts, pages 2-3.
Intermediate-Term (weeks/months): EEM lower
GEM intermediate breadth and momentum indicators were mixed again week-onweek
at the close on Thursday :
 India, Singapore and Taiwan Intermediate Term Indicators fell,
 Money Flow of the Average Hang Seng, Singapore and India Stock were
unchanged and
 Hang Seng and Korea Intermediate Term Indicators improved.
GEM equity indices were also mixed week-on-week at the close on Thursday:
 MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM), Hang Seng, Taiwan, Shanghai, HSCEI,
Philippines, Bovespa and Korea fell and
 Singapore, ASX, Jakarta, Mexico, Turkey, Johannesburg and India were higher.
Turkey was sharply higher again and Bovespa and Taiwan were sharply lower. See
Weekly Charts, attached.
No intermediate buy signal : mixed intermediate GEM breadth and momentum
indicators and GEM equity indices suggests a still-negative intermediate outlook
(weeks/months) for GEM equity indices.
DJIA/NYSE ITI analogs (peaks in the NYSE ITI in the 70% range excluding 2020)
suggests further 1-4% weakness for key US equity indices from now until mid-
August, then a rally to new highs by either late September (average of second
signals, chart page 2) or mid-November (average best analogs, chart page 3).
GEM equities should follow suit.
Key take-away: the intermediate outlook for GEM equities (weeks/months) is
still negative.
Provider
SMI
Analysts
Lane Dusserre

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