No buy signal—the short-term trend (days/weeks) for EEM remains negative.
Short-Term (days/weeks) : EEM still negative
EEM fell sharply last week following a short-term sell signal ; Daily OB/OS
momentum turned negative.
At the close on Friday, EEM was testing trend support from the fall 2022 low ;
Daily OB/OS momentum was very modestly oversold.
No buy signal—the short-term trend (days/weeks) for EEM remains negative.
US analogs of the DJIA/NYSE ITI (peaks in the 70% range) suggest weakness to
mid-August; this should weigh on EEM.
See Daily OB/OS Charts, attached, page 9 and analog charts, pages 2-3.
Intermediate-Term (weeks/months): EEM lower
GEM intermediate breadth and momentum indicators were mixed again week-onweek
at the close on Thursday :
India, Singapore and Taiwan Intermediate Term Indicators fell,
Money Flow of the Average Hang Seng, Singapore and India Stock were
unchanged and
Hang Seng and Korea Intermediate Term Indicators improved.
GEM equity indices were also mixed week-on-week at the close on Thursday:
MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM), Hang Seng, Taiwan, Shanghai, HSCEI,
Philippines, Bovespa and Korea fell and
Singapore, ASX, Jakarta, Mexico, Turkey, Johannesburg and India were higher.
Turkey was sharply higher again and Bovespa and Taiwan were sharply lower. See
Weekly Charts, attached.
No intermediate buy signal : mixed intermediate GEM breadth and momentum
indicators and GEM equity indices suggests a still-negative intermediate outlook
(weeks/months) for GEM equity indices.
DJIA/NYSE ITI analogs (peaks in the NYSE ITI in the 70% range excluding 2020)
suggests further 1-4% weakness for key US equity indices from now until mid-
August, then a rally to new highs by either late September (average of second
signals, chart page 2) or mid-November (average best analogs, chart page 3).
GEM equities should follow suit.
Key take-away: the intermediate outlook for GEM equities (weeks/months) is
still negative.