Short-Term (days/weeks) : lower, no short-term buy signal for US Equity Indices

Short-Term (days/weeks) : lower, no short-term buy signal
Key US equity indices were almost all lower last week, including S&P 500,
Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100; DJIA was higher. Daily OB/OS momentum
indicators mostly fell, to modestly oversold (S&P 500) or moderately oversold
(Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100). DJIA Daily OB/OS neutralized from modestly
oversold.
At the close on Friday, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite were
testing support ; the DJIA was turning up at short-term support. Daily OB/OS
momentum indicators were modestly oversold (S&P 500), moderately oversold
(Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100) or neutral (DJIA).
The S&P 500 is very near 4456 first target; 4414 (next target, 50-day moving
average) is 1% below Friday’s close and the 4305 target (August 2022 high) is
4% below Friday’s close.
DJIA/NYSE ITI analogs point to further weakness to mid-August.
See Daily OB/OS Charts, attached and analog charts, pages 2-3.
Intermediate-Term (weeks/months): no buy signal, still negative
US intermediate indicators of breadth and momentum all fell again week-onweek
at the close on Thursday, including NYSE, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq
100 Intermediate Term Indicators, Percentage of S&P 500 Groups with Positive
Money Flow and Money Flow of the Average NYSE Stock. Indicators mostly
accelerated lower.
Key US equity indices also all fell week-on-week at the close on Thursday ; the
Nasdaq Composite and the Nasdaq 100 accelerated lower. The DJIA is near
trend support and the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 are well above next
support.
See Weekly Charts, attached.
No intermediate buy signal—the trend (weeks/months) remains negative.
DJIA/NYSE ITI analogs (best fit of peaks in the NYSE ITI in the 70% range and
second peaks in the indicator) suggests further 1 to 3% declines for the DJIA/
S&P 500 from now until mid-August, then a rally to new highs by either late
September (average of second signals, chart page 2) or mid-November (average
best analogs, chart page 3).
Key Takeaway : the intermediate outlook (weeks/months) for US equities is
still negative.