Short-Term (days/weeks) : lower (was positive)

Short-Term (days/weeks) : lower (was positive), wait to buy
Key US equity indices all fell last week, turning down at resistance as Daily OB/
OS momentum indicators turned negative.
At the close on Friday, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite were
all testing or near short-term price support; the DJIA was still above next
support ; Daily OB/OS momentum indicators were modestly oversold (DJIA,
S&P 500) or moderately oversold (Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100).
Intermediate indicators turned down in overbought territory as equity indices
were sharply lower from resistance (see below); this suggests a now-negative
intermediate trend for US equity indices and further short-term weakness. Next
support for the S&P 500 is 4456, then 4414 (-1%, 50-day moving average), then
4305 (-4%, August 2022 high). New DJIA/NYSE ITI analogs point to 1%
weakness from here on average to late August before a rally back to Friday’s
peak by late September, but a 5% decline is also a possibility. See Daily OB/OS
Charts, attached and analog chart, page 2.
Intermediate-Term (weeks/months): inflection point, now
negative
US intermediate indicators of breadth and momentum all fell week-on-week at
the close on Thursday, including NYSE, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100
Intermediate Term Indicators, Percentage of S&P 500 Groups with Positive
Money Flow and Money Flow of the Average NYSE Stock.
Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 Intermediate Term Indicators and
Percentage of S&P 500 Groups with Positive Money Flow all accelerated lower.
Indicators are turning down in overbought territory.
Key US equity indices were mostly lower week-on-week at the close on
Thursday including the Nasdaq Composite and the Nasdaq 100 ; the DJIA was
unchanged. All three indices have turned down at resistance (Nasdaq Composite,
Nasdaq 100) or stalled at resistance (DJIA). See Weekly Charts, attached.
Accelerated declines in US intermediate-term indicators in overbought territory
accompanied by mostly lower US equity indices turning down or stalling at
resistance after an extended rally suggests an inflection point in the intermediate
trend (weeks/months) for US equity indices.
The average of new DJIA /NYSE ITI analogs (peaks in the NYSE ITI in the 70%
range excluding 2020) suggests modest weakness for the DJIA/S&P 500 (further
1% decline) from now until late August, then a rally to new highs by mid-
October: see analog chart, page 2. Deep downside is 5% further decline to late
September.
Key Takeaway : the intermediate outlook (weeks/months) for US equities is
now negative (was positive).