Short-Term (days/weeks) : mixed picture for US equity indices, likely short-term low within 1-2 weeks, wait to buy

Short-Term (days/weeks) : mixed picture, likely short-term low within 1-2 weeks, wait to buy

Key US equity indices were lower last week, breaching the uptrend from the August lows as Daily OB/OS momentum fell to moderately or fully oversold.

As of the close on Friday, the S&P 500 was testing 18 August 2022 support at 4290 (daily bar chart) and support at the 25% Fibonacci retracement of the gains from the October 2022 low; Daily OB/OS for the S&P 500 is turning up at the fully oversold levels seen at the last three short-term price lows in the past 12 months. The Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 are both testing short-term support ; Daily OB/OS are also turning up at levels seen at recent price lows. The DJIA is near the 50-day moving average, but is still above next

support at the June lows ; DJIA Daily OB/OS momentum is not yet fully oversold.

The Number of NYSE Stocks with Weekly Money Flow turning positive fell to 6 at the close on Friday, suggesting a short-term low within 1-2 weeks: see Weekly Charts, attached, page 4. On balance, key indices are testing support and Daily OB/OS are mostly suggesting a short-term low now or soon (1-2 weeks). However, risk has increased : intermediate indicators fell unexpectedly last week, suggesting a now-neutral intermediate environment (was positive). On balance, would be on sidelines. See Daily OB/OS Charts, attached.

Intermediate-Term (weeks/months): neutral (was positive), increased risk

US intermediate indicators of breadth and momentum were mostly sharply lower week-on-week at the close on Thursday, including Nasdaq 100 and NYSE Intermediate Term Indicators, Percentage of S&P 500 Groups with Positive Money Flow and the Money Flow of the Average NYSE Stock. The Nasdaq Composite Intermediate Term Indicator was sharply higher.

Indicators of breadth and momentum range from modestly oversold (Nasdaq 100 and NYSE Intermediate Term Indicators) to moderately oversold (Percentage of S&P 500 Groups with Positive Money Flow, Money Flow of the Average NYSE Stock and Nasdaq Composite Intermediate Term Indicator).

Key US equity indices (DJIA, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100) were all sharply lower week-on-week at the close on Thursday : all three indices breached uptrends from the fall 2022 price lows and are testing possible new intermediate support levels. See Weekly Charts, attached.

Mostly sharply lower intermediate indicators of breadth and momentum and key equity indices looks like a now-neutral intermediate outlook (weeks/months). Would not add to exposure now; further weakness from current levels would suggest possible 3% further decline to 4186 for the S&P 500.

The intermediate uptrend (weeks/months) for US equities is now neutral (was positive).