Report
SMI
Lane Dusserre

Short-Term (days/weeks) : open gaps in hourly bar charts suggest modest weakness for US Equity Indices

Short-Term (days/weeks) : open gaps in hourly bar charts suggest modest weakness
Key US equity indices were all higher last week, turning up at trend support from the May/June lows as Daily OB/OS momentum indicators turned positive or turned up at neutral (S&P 500).
At the close on Friday, the S&P 500 and DJIA were testing resistance from the fall price highs; the Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite were testing resistance at the June highs. Daily OB/OS momentum indicators were modestly overbought.
Indices all gapped higher on Friday on hourly bar charts which may lead to some modest weakness, perhaps intraday, as gaps are closed.
The updated DJIA model of troughs in the NYSE ITI in the 30% range suggests a possible short-term top around now followed by a 5% peak/trough decline to a low early/mid-August, then a rally to new highs: see chart, page 2. However, no short-term sell signal for now.
On balance, the uptrend is intact, but on the alert for modest weakness next week. A breach of price support levels at the May/June highs would likely lead to a 5% pullback which should be used as a buying opportunity since the intermediate outlook (weeks/months) remains positive (see below). See Daily OB/OS Charts, attached.
Intermediate-Term (weeks/months):
US intermediate indicators of breadth and momentum were almost all unchanged
week-on-week at the close on Thursday, including NYSE and Nasdaq Composite 100 Intermediate Term Indicators, Percentage of S&P 500 Groups with Positive Money Flow and Money Flow of the Average NYSE Stock. Nasdaq 100 Intermediate Term Indicator fell.
Key US equity indices were mixed week-on-week at the close on Thursday : thre DJIA was higher, turning up at price support and the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 both fell. See Weekly Charts, attached)
Mostly unchanged intermediate indicators of breadth and momentum accompanied by mixed US equity indices suggests a still-positive intermediate trend (weeks/months) for US equity indices.
The DJIA/NYSE ITI analog model suggests a positive intermediate trend too: see analog chart, page 2.
Key Takeaway : the intermediate outlook (weeks/months) for US equities remains positive.
Provider
SMI
Analysts
Lane Dusserre

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