Short-Term (days/weeks) : positive, but increased uncertainty for US equity indices
Short-Term (days/weeks) : positive, but increased uncertainty
Key US equity indices were mostly slightly lower last week, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 ; the DJIA was unchanged. Daily OB/OS momentum indicators failed at modestly overbought.
At the close on Friday, indices were at or near trend support from the December/February/March lows (S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100) ; the DJIA was very near fall 2022 trend support. Daily OB/OS momentum indicators were neutral for the S&P 500 and modestly oversold for the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite.
The DJIA has diverged from analogs suggesting short-term strength; however, there is no clear short-term sell signal for US equity indices. Would give the uptrend the benefit of the doubt for now.
See Daily OB/OS Charts, attached.
Intermediate-Term (weeks/months): uptrend intact, but divergence from analogs
US intermediate indicators of breadth and momentum were mixed week-on-week at the close on Thursday:
Nasdaq 100 Intermediate Term Indicator was higher,
NYSE Intermediate Term Indicator, Percentage of S&P 500 Groups with Positive Money Flow and the Money Flow of the Average NYSE Stock were unchanged and
Nasdaq Composite Intermediate Term Indicator fell.
Indicators of breadth and momentum range from modestly overbought (Nasdaq 100 Intermediate Term Indicator) to modestly oversold (NYSE and Nasdaq Composite ITI’s, Money Flow of the Average NYSE Stock) to moderately oversold (Percentage of S&P 500 Groups with Positive Money Flow).
Key US equity indices (DJIA, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100) were all sharply higher week-on-week at the close on Thursday ; the Nasdaq 100 is now testing trend resistance and the Nasdaq Composite and DJIA are approaching resistance. See Weekly Charts, attached.
Mixed intermediate indicators of breadth and momentum accompanied by accelerating improvement in equity indices suggests a still-positive intermediate trend (weeks/months) for US equity indices. Also, indicators are moderately oversold to only modestly overbought, leaving room for further upside. And indices are all above intermediate trend support. However, the DJIA has diverged from NYSE ITI and Pre-Election Year analogs which suggested strength to mid/late October: this has introduced an element of uncertainty.
For now however, would give the intermediate uptrend (weeks/months) for US equities the benefit of the doubt.