Short-Term (days/weeks) : positive for US equity indices , use possible 1-2% decline as a buying opportunity
Short-Term (days/weeks) : positive, use possible 1-2% decline as
a buying opportunity
Key US equity indices were all unexpectedly higher last week, mostly turning up
at trend support from the April/May lows as Daily OB/OS momentum indicators
mostly turned up around neutral.
At the close on Friday, the S&P 500 was turning down at trend resistance and the
DJIA was testing resistance; the Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite were both
extended in the middle of the range. Daily OB/OS momentum indicators were
moderately overbought.
The negative divergence in the S&P 500 Daily OB/OS last week was unhelpful as a signal of short-term price weakness; the DJIA has
diverged from the “best fit” NYSE ITI model of troughs in the 30% range which
suggested short-term weakness. The S&P 500 turning down at resistance as
Daily OB/OS is turning down at moderately overbought now which may lead to
modest short-term price weakness, but there is support at 4456 and 4426 (1-2%
below Friday’s close).
Use weakness as a buying opportunity : the intermediate outlook (weeks/months)
remains positive (see below). See Daily OB/OS Charts, attached.
Intermediate-Term (weeks/months): higher
US intermediate indicators of breadth and momentum were mostly very sharply
higher week-on-week at the close on Thursday, including NYSE and Nasdaq
Composite 100 Intermediate Term Indicators, Percentage of S&P 500 Groups
with Positive Money Flow and Money Flow of the Average NYSE Stock. The
Nasdaq 100 Intermediate Term Indicator was unchanged.
Key US equity indices were all higher or sharply higher week-on-week at the
close on Thursday. The DJIA is again testing resistance from the October 2022/
May 2023 highs, the Nasdaq Composite is testing resistance from late 2021
highs and the Nasdaq 100 is testing resistance from the September 2021 high.
See Weekly Charts, attached.
Mostly sharply higher US intermediate indicators and US equity indices suggests
that the intermediate trend (weeks/months) remains positive for US equities.
The DJIA /NY SE ITI analog model (all analogs) suggests a positive intermediate
trend too for the DJIA/S&P 500 (weeks/months): see analog chart, page 2.
Key Takeaway : the intermediate outlook (weeks/months) for US equities
remains positive.