Short-Term (days/weeks) : short-term low soon
Short-Term (days/weeks) : short-term low soon
The S&P 500 and key US equity indices all fell last week, as expected, as Daily
OB/OS momentum indicators turned negative or failed below neutral.
At the close on Friday, the DJIA, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 were all
testing areas of price support; the S&P 500 was near trend support from the
October low.
At the close on Friday, Daily OB/OS momentum indicators were in range of the
moderately oversold levels seen at price lows in December/January.
No short-term buy signal (price turning up at support as Daily OB/OS
momentum turns up at oversold), but the conditions are in place.
Also, the Number of NYSE Stocks with Weekly Money Flow Turning Positive
fell to 6 at the close on Thursday, suggesting a short-term low within 1-2 weeks:
see Weekly Charts, attached, page 4.
Updated DJIA /Pre-Election Year and NYSE ITI analogs (peaks in the 70%
range) still look relevant and also suggest a low soon (analog charts, pages 2-3).
See Daily OB/OS Charts, attached.
Intermediate-Term (weeks/months): still positive
US intermediate indicators of breadth and momentum were all lower week-on-week
at the close on Thursday, including NYSE, Nasdaq Composite and
Nasdaq 100 Intermediate Term Indicators, Money Flow of the Average NYSE
Stock and Percentage of S&P 500 Groups with Positive Money Flow. Indicators
mostly accelerated lower.
US equity indices all fell week-on-week at the close on Thursday : indices were
sharply lower. The DJIA is now testing possible trend support, the Nasdaq
Composite is testing support and Nasdaq 100 is near intermediate price support.
See Weekly Charts, attached.
Lower intermediate indicators and equity indices still looks suggestive of an
intermediate consolidation (modest weakness in a positive longer-term trend) for
US equity indices.
Key Takeaway : on balance, the intermediate outlook (weeks/months) for
US equities remains positive and weakness to end February should be used as a
buying opportunity.