The short-term uptrend for EEM from the June low is intact, but a breach of $39 trend support would point to a short-term pullback in July.
Short-Term (days/weeks) : possible modest weakness for EEM, should be used as a buying opportunity
EEM was slightly higher last week, stalled in a narrow range as Daily OB/OS momentum neutralized from moderately oversold.
At the close on Friday, EEM was still stalled in the middle of the range; Daily OB/OS momentum had turned up at neutral and was very modestly overbought.
Key US equity indices gapped up at the open on Friday in hourly bar charts, suggesting possible modest weakness next week as gaps are closed. There is no short-term sell signal for US equity indices, but updated US analogs point to a possible 5% drawdown for the DJIA/S&P 500 from around now, followed by a rally to new highs from early August : see analog chart, page 2.
The short-term uptrend for EEM from the June low is intact, but a breach of $39 trend support would point to a comparable short-term pullback in July. See Daily OB/OS Charts, attached, page 9.
Intermediate-Term (weeks/months): still positive
GEM intermediate breadth and momentum indicators were all lower or unchanged
week-on-week at the close on Wednesday (Hang Seng, India) and Thursday (other indices):
Hang Seng and Singapore Intermediate Term Indicators and Money Flow of the Average Hang Seng, Singapore and India Stock were unchanged and
Taiwan, Korea and India Intermediate Term Indicators fell.
GEM equity indices were mixed week-on-week at the close on Wednesday (Hang Seng and India) and Thursday (all other indices):
MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM), Hang Seng, Taiwan, Korea, Shanghai, Johannesburg and Singapore fell,
India, Jakarta, Turkey, Philippines and HSCEI improved and
ASX and Mexico were unchanged.
See Weekly Charts, attached.
Unchanged/lower intermediate indicators accompanied by weakness in EEM suggests a still-intact intermediate trend (weeks/months) for GEM equity indices.
The updated DJIA/NYSE ITI analog model (troughs in the 30% range) suggests a positive intermediate trend for the key US equity market: this should be supportive for GEM equity indices. See analog chart, page 2.
Key take-away: the intermediate outlook for GEM equities (weeks/months) remains positive.